Nothing gained
Mets gamble on unique offseason without a single notable addition
In re-signing Jerry Blevins and Fernando Salas last week, the Mets put the (apparently) finishing touches on what will go down as one of the odder offseasons in recent baseball history. To dumb it down:
1. They retained six players whom they could have jettisoned. They resigned Blevins, Yoenis Cespedes and Salas as free agents; exercised team options on Jay Bruce and Jose Reyes; and extended a qualifying offer to Neil Walker, which the second baseman accepted.
2. They added zero players who provided value to another major league team in 2016. Tom Gorzelanny, whom they signed last week to a minor league deal, registered -0.5 Wins Above Replacement for the Indians.
So, barring a late import, the Mets will be embarking — unwittingly, for sure — on an intriguing experiment. They will be the first playoff team in the two-wild-card era (since 2012) to try to return to October without acquiring a single reinforcement of value from the outside.
That’s 10 playoff teams per year over five years, for a total of 50. The Mets are the only one of 50 to give this plan a shot.
Other teams have come close by making minimal changes. From my research, three clubs stood out for their minimalism: the 2013 Giants, 2013 Orioles and 2014 Reds.
The 2012 Giants won the World Series. The 2013 Giants’ most significant addition was outfielder Andres Torres, whom they reacquired from the Mets, but similar to these Mets, they also re-signed their own Jeremy Affeldt, Angel Pagan (whom the Mets gave up for Torres and Ramon Ramirez the prior winter) and Marco Scutaro. In 2013, the Giants f inished 76-86, their only losing record since 2009.
The 2013 O’s, after losing to the Yankees in the Division Series, picked up a handful of guys — second baseman Alexi Casilla, veteran starting pitcher Freddy Garcia, first baseman Travis Ishikawa and outfielder Jason Pridie — who had contributed mildly to other teams the prior season. None helped much, and the Orioles slipped to 85-77 and out of the postseason.
The 2014 Reds’ biggest change, coming off a National League wildcard loss to the Pirates, came in the manager’s office as they replaced Dusty Baker with Bryan Price. Of this entire group, including the 2016 Mets, they were the most static. Their biggest pickup was catcherfirst baseman Brayan Pena, who had contributed 0.4 WAR to the 2013 Tigers. Those Reds wound up at 76-86.
So history clearly has rewarded those who shake things up some. And the Mets have taken the most extreme, anti-shake-up approach.
Now, you know the Mets’ thinking here, and it just might work. They’re banking on massive returns to health. From their starting pitchers Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Steven Matz, plus two-year absentee Zack Wheeler, who appears destined to start the season in the bullpen. Bartolo Colon, by far the most valuable 2016 Met to fly the coop, understandably accepted a one-year, $12.5 million offer from the Braves because the Mets felt they could give Colon neither those dollars nor the guaranteed starts he desired, especially given last year’s development of Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo.
They also need sound rehabilitations from Walker, Lucas Duda and Juan Lagares. And if David Wright can’t come back, then they’re counting on Reyes and Wilmer Flores to cover for him with T.J. Rivera and Matt Reynolds in reserve.
And they’re counting on Travis d’Arnaud, with help from new catching instructor Glenn Sherlock, to realize his potential. And for the lineup to perform better with runners in scoring position than last year’s disastrous showing. And for the bullpen to cover for Jeurys Familia’s impending suspension.
Moreover, the Mets’ targeted retention of Blevins, Cespedes and Walker, in particular, reflected the comfort level they had with these players. All three clearly enjoyed their time at Citi Field and wanted to stay. That speaks highly of the clubhouse culture established under Terry Collins. I’m not sure the Mets would’ve made the playoffs last year, given the rash of injuries they suffered and the ultra-thin margin by which they qualified, if not for that clubhouse culture. The Mets wanted Blevins over Boone Logan, and Cespedes over Jose Bautista, and Walker over … someone, and their success in keeping them puts them in this unique place.
Fangraphs projects the Mets to finish 84-78, which would represent a three-game drop-off and very likely a trip straight home in October; Baseball Prospectus has them at 88 wins, taking the NL East by one game. Let’s not forget also that the Mets have been very aggressive about making in-season transactions and figure to act similarly if they see voids to fill.
At the outset, though? No one else has tried it quite like this. We’ll watch the experiment and learn.