Project: run away
Don’t believe overly optimistic Segura forecasts
SOMETIMES, drafting play-play- ers coming off big years is like trying to buy a car on Craigslist. Sure, the price on the BMW being sold by “CaptainRipOff ” seems right and the pictures (taken from 50 yards away) look great, but it isn’t until you see it up close that you find its flaws. You know, like the front seat has been replaced with a beach chair, or the gear shift has been replaced by a mannequin hand, or the BMW logo tears off and reveals a 10-year-old’s drawing of a hand with its middle finger extended. Sometimes, nothing is what it seems.
Last season, Roto Rage declared Jean Segura (62.7 average draft position and $19 auction price, according to FantasyPros) the most underrated fantasy shortstop, because of his move to Arizona. If you drafted him, it paid off when he hit career marks in homers (20), RBIs (64), batting average (.319), OPS (.867), hits (203) and runs scored (102), and he had 33 steals.
Now, Segura is being drafted like a top-10 middle infielder, which would be great if he still were in the friendly confines of Arizona’s Chase Field. Unfortunately, he was traded to Seattle and will play 81 games at hitterhell Safeco Field.
To draft Segura at his current price means you are buying into his power, despite the fact from 2012-15 he had 21 homers, just one more than he hit last year.
It means you believe he will hit .300 or better, despite being a career .280 hitter (aided by him hitting . 319 last year after hitting .266 from 2012-15).
It means you be-lieve he will score more than 100 runs again, when his highest previous total came in 2014 (74), or his .867 OPS is the new norm when his career OPS is .716.
One thing Roto Rage can buy: Segura will be a threat on the basepaths (he averaged 30 stolen bases between 2013-16). That alone, however, is not worth treating him like a top-10 middle infielder. He is a solid player, but not worth the current price. You’re better off looking for Addison Russell (135.0, $8), Javier Baez (155.3, $1) or Brad Miller (172.3, $5) later on.
Here are a few other middle infielders to avoid early on:
Brian Dozier (35.7 ADP, $26 auction) is a talented, valuable second baseman, but he is not worth a third- or fourthround pick. Dozier set career marks in home runs (42), RBIs (99), batting average (.268), OPS (.886) and slugging percentage (.546) last season, but that was aided by an insane 57-game stretch over the f i nal two months when he hit .291 with 25 homers, 47 RBIs and a 1.019 OPS. He is a career .246 hitter, who from 2013-15 hit .240 while averaging 23 homers and 71 RBIs. His 2016 numbers are not sustainable, and you shouldn’t pay up hoping for a repeat. There is one reason Dee
Gordon (55.0, $18) carries such a hefty price tag: stolen bases. That’s it! Chasing stolen bases early in the draft with a onetrick pony like the P.E.Dee is going to leave your roster with big holes, since he offers little help elsewhere. If you want to chase stolen bases, wait about 10 rounds for Cincinnati’s Jose
Peraza (149.7, $1), who stole 21 bases in 72 games last season and is trending toward being the Reds’ starting second baseman. A little skeptical about
Eduardo Nunez (1 33.0, $9), that’s all. His speed is for real (which is a great addition in the area he is being drafted), but Roto Rage doubts his power (especially while playing his home games in a stadium that allowed the least number of homers in it last season).