Moose bumps
KC 3B provides great value late
WHEN we were younger, we believed in the tooth fairy (until you woke up that one time and saw Mom or Dad slipping money under your pillow), Santa Claus (until you caught Mom and Dad placing the presents under the tree or, you know, you were Jewish) or superheroes (until Mom and Dad told you they were only pretend, and jumping off the roof while wearing your blanket as a cape was a bad idea).
If you play fantasy baseball, you believe in trends in a players’ stats. We believe they’re telling us what we need to know in order to draft the right players. We all need something to believe in, so it might as well be the facts.
If you’ve read this column over the past few seasons, you know the Royals’ Mike Moustakas has been a mainstay. He was named the best fantasy bargain of 2015 and the most underrated thirdbase option entering 2016, which Roto Rage believes would have been true had he not torn his ACL.
Nothing has changed, despite coming off an injury and barely being on anyone’s radar during drafts — with an average draft position of 252.7, according to Fantasy Pros. Heck, his highest auction price has been $1. That means people are concerned about his right knee, which is understandable but not reason enough to ignore him.
After his 2015 All-Star campaign (.284, 22 HRs, 82 RBIs, .817 OPS), Moustakas hit .240 with seven homers, 13 RBIs, nine walks, a .301 on-base percentage and a .801 OPS in just 27 games last season. His average and OBP are lower than you would want, but it was a small sample size (he had a .214 BABIP, which indicates he had a lot of bad luck at the plate).
But Moose’s numbers have been trending in the right direction for a while. His contact rate increased from 8 4 .4 in 2014 to 85 percent in 2015 and 86.2 percent last year. During that same time, his strikeout rate dipped (from 14.8 percent in 2014 to 11.5 percent last year), his walk rate got better (from 7 to 8 percent) and his hard-hit rate went up (from 31.7 percent to 37.4 percent). Even his swing percentage went from 48.3 percent in 2014 to 42.1 percent last season.
All these numbers (and there are lots more — like his increased home run, extra-base hit and opposite-field hits percentages) are signs of the 28-year-old being disciplined at the plate. In addition to the stats, he is in a walk year, so Moose will be motivated — not just for financial gain, but to prove the numbers don’t lie and he is what we believe.
He will show a little rust at the beginning (like he has in spring training), but he will come around. He will prove you right for believing in him on draft day.
Here a re some other t hi rd basemen to target draft day:
Ryon Healy (202.0 ADP, $2 auction) hit .305 with 13 hom- ers, 37 RBIs and a .861 OPS in just 72 games last season (283 plate appearances) for Oakland — and that doesn’t include the 14 homers, 64 RBIs and . 326 average he had across 85 games in the minors. His average may drop a bit (he is a career .295 hitter across all levels), but his power is for real. Draft him with confidence. Detroit’s Nick
Castellanos (265.3, $1) is extremely undervalued. He is coming off a season in which he hit careerhigh marks in average (.285), homers (18), OPS (.827), OB P (.331) and runs scored (54) in just 110 games. He is just 25-yearsold with plenty of upside, so taking a shot on him late in the draft is not going to hurt your squad in any way. Jose Re yes (288.0, $1) will be seeing plenty of playing time with health concerns over David Wright. The fact he is being drafted so low (if he even is drafted) is mind-boggling. Do not ignore the speedy 33-yearold on draft day.