EU Nightmare
Turkey pushes Merkel & Co. to the brink
TURKEY and Europe are like a married couple more than ready to divorce but, ugh, the shared rent is too attractive, no one wants to pay alimony — and what will the neighbors say?
So they keep cursing, screaming and throwing things at each other.
The latest round of squabbling could very well have far-reaching consequences: It may sway Wednesday’s parliamentary election in the Netherlands and next month’s constitutional referendum in Turkey, in which President Recep Tayyip Erdogan aims for popular backing for his plan to greatly increase the powers of his office.
Political passions are, to say the least, running high.
Conservative Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte is hoping to fend off his far-right and anti-immigrant rival, Geert Wilders, by getting tough on Turkey. Erdogan, in his usual grandiose way, has resorted to hurling every insult he can think of at the Dutch.
Erdogan’s Dutch skirmish isn’t a one-off. Last week he had it out with Germany and Austria, complete with insults about their Nazi past. (Though Erdogan isn’t exactly discerning when accusing others of being “Nazis”; it’s what he’s called the Dutch and the Israelis, too, among others.)
So when German Chancellor Angela Merkel visits Washington on Friday, her attention will likely be divided between her important first sit-down with President Trump and the Turkish crisis.
A bit of background: On April 16, Turkey will conduct a referendum on the presidency, now legally a more-or-less ceremonial position in the country’s parliamentary system. A yes vote will give the Islamist Erdogan unprecedented executive powers.
Erdogan, remember, became president when term limits ended his run as prime minister. Even without formal power, he’s already an authoritarian leader. The constitutional change, which he’s all but sure to get, would put the power of the law behind his autocratic tendencies and remove some of the few remaining constraints to his consolidation of power.
Since Turks living outside the country can vote, Erdogan wanted to stage support rallies in European countries (even as he forbade nonsupporters from demonstrating in Turkey). Germany and Austria banned those pro-Erdogan rallies, raising the Turk’s ire. This week, the Netherlands followed suit, citing security concerns.
A Turkish Cabinet minister hoped to lead one such rally in Rotterdam but was detained crossing over from Germany and prevented from addressing the crowd, which then marched even more furiously, provoking a crackdown from Dutch police.
Meanwhile, Rutte is trying to fend off Wilders, a flamboyant populist who curses Muslims, wants immigrants out and a divorce from the European Union.
Rutte will likely remain prime minister even if Wilders wins the popular vote, since he’s more likely to be able to cobble together a coalition. But to govern effectively, he must address the country’s angry mood.
Which is strange: The Dutch economy is doing fairly well. It has fewer Muslim immigrants than most other European countries. Yet the formerly docile and boring Dutch people are at the forefront of the continental wave of resentment.
So, politics aside, will a war of words with the undemocratic, mercurial Erdogan resolve Europe’s problems? Or Turkey’s?
As Ankara-based columnist Asli Aydintasbas notes, the Dutch are heavy investors in Turkey’s businesses. Germany is Europe’s largest importer of Turkish goods. And to make its economy hum again, Turkey will need a steady stream of European tourists.
For decades, Turkey sought to become part of the European Union. But the continent’s bigwigs kept raising the stakes, demanding more democratic reforms. Now Turkey’s turning away from democracy altogether, and Europe’s anti-Muslim bigotry is out in the open.
So, again, maybe a divorce will do some good?
Except Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu is now threatening to cancel a deal that was about to be concluded with the Europeans. It would’ve waived visa requirements for Turks visiting the continent. In return, Turkey will block a new wave of refugees from the Mideast into Europe — the continent’s biggest headache
Europe and Turkey can’t seem to live with each other, can’t seem to live without each other. Will Trump, in his meeting with Merkel, play the marriage counselor?