LAUNCHING PAD
MLB has become hitter’s paradise once again
IN case you were sorting through Wonderlic scores in preparation for the NFL draft or were fixated on the MVP worthiness of Russell Westbrook over the past month, we bring you this public service announcement: The ball is flying like never before in the majors.
There were many storylines in April, but none bigger than homers soaring out of the park like never before. And we mean never before. The record for homers in a season came in 2000 with 5,693, or 1.171 per game. The pre-May average this year was 1.169 per game, which is slightly less. But we haven’t reached warm weather yet, when we can expect the ball to really soar.
Now, the simplest explanation for this would be that a new Steroid Era is upon us, that chemists are feeding players concoctions that either pass through the body quickly and/or are undetectable by MLB testing. And you would have to be naïve to think there is not still cheating.
But I think there are other reasons for the homer epidemic, beyond the obvious: Pitchers are throwing harder than ever, and batters are stronger and swinging harder than ever. In that equation, when ball meets bat, you get something that equals 1.169 homers per game. I believe each team also is making advances in sports science — obviously some much more so than others — to help improve, among other things, the eyesight and reaction times of hitters. You can add “see ball better, react quicker” to the previous equation explaining the homer increase.
Four players already have double-digit homers (Khris Davis, Aaron Judge, Eric Thames and Ryan Zimmerman). There had not been more than two to reach that level before May since 2006. Might we see a 60-homer player again? Or maybe just the first 50-homer season since 2013?
That is a generally exciting concept, but in thinking about April, it also is part of a worrisome trend:
1. The relentless climb of three true outcomes. Last season, a record 32.3 percent of plate appearances ended in a homer, strikeout or walk. This April, it was 33.4 percent. More than one of every three plays is ending without the ball in the field of play.
Commissioner Rob Manfred is obsessed with heightening action — namely, fielders being involved and runners moving around the bases. But the homer record is under assault again. Walks are at their highest level since 2009 (at least that puts runners on base). And if April rates hold, this would mark the 12th straight season in which strikeouts increase.
You know what else is on the rise, despite all of Manfred’s efforts to reverse it? Time of game. The average April game lasted 3:03.56. Last year, it was 3:00.42. The record is 3:02.21 in 2014.
2. DL stints are up about 12 percent over recent seasons. But that should surprise zero percent of folks.
The rule change to make DL stints at least 10 days, rather than 15, obviously was going to motivate greater caution and also a greater amount of cunning as teams try to figure out how to use the system to their advantage — for example, as a brief pit stop for a starting pitcher only to miss one or two starts. There were 165 DL stints over the season’s first 25 days compared to 143 over the same span last year, and as the month went along — as you might expect — the frequency of DL stints intensified.
3. You know what number you don’t want high? Average age. The two teams with the oldest-average roster age in the American League are the Royals and Blue Jays, who finished April with the majors’ worst records.
The oldest roster average in the majors belongs to the supposedly rebuilding Braves, who at 10-13 were not opening their new stadium as they hoped. They were next-to-last in the NL East. Last? That would be the Mets, owners of the oldest everyday lineup in the NL.
The Mets and Blue Jays are two of four 2016 playoff teams who finished April under .500. The Rangers, who led the AL with 95 wins last year, were 11-14, and the wildcard Giants had the NL’s worst record at 9-17.