CALL TO ACTION
Trade market could get early jump-start this season
TRADITIONALLY, the trade market does not really percolate until after the draft, and the expectation is nothing serious will occur until the completion of the process.
Nevertheless, in conversations with executives, I hear a heightened awareness of forces that could lead to earlier action — think between mid-June (the last day of the draft is the 14th) and the All-Star break. Here is why: 1. The presence of unexpected sellers. The Giants, Blue Jays and Rangers all made the playoffs l ast year and went into t he weekend as la s t - pl a ce teams. So did the Pirates and Royals, who also aspired to contend.
San Francisco, Toronto and Texas — should they sell — would follow the Yankees’ model of last season: They are conceding one season, but not going into a total rebuild. These teams all need to reseed systems that have been used heavily in recent years in go-for-it trades.
2. A starting pitching infestation is possible in the marketplace. Just about every potential also-ran has a starter or three who could be made available.vailable.
Consider those threeree expect-expect ed contenders: Thehe Giants could dangle Johnnyny Cueto, Matt Moore or Jeff Samardzija; the Blue Jays Marco Estrada or J.A. Happ (if he getss healthy); the Rangers Yu Darvish and Martin Perez.
Starters in their walk year such as Estrada and Darvishsh almost certain are be mar-mar keted, because compensationmpensation via the new collectiveve bargain-bargain ing agreement wouldd not bring a draft pick after the first round to big-revenue teams such as the Blue Jays and Rangers,ers, even if they put the qualifyingg offer on a player.
3. This certainly is not a comcomplete list of starters withwith a like-likelihood of being available,ilable, but just to give an idea off the scope, you could have: Tampampa Bay’s Alex Cobb plus maybeybe Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi;rizzi; Min-Min nesota’s Ervin Santanana and Hec-Hector Santiago; Detroit’sit’s Justin Verlander; Kansas City’sity’s Jason Vargas plus maybe Iann Kennedy “Our scouting strategy hasn’t changed since 2007.”
Still, another AL executive stated: “The Royals are dying to declare.” This is not wholly unexpected. The Royals dealt walkyear players Wade Davis and Jarrod Dyson in the offseason and discussed free-agents-to-be Alcides Escobar, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer all are free after the season.
But the player they could try to capitalize withh the soonest is Vargas, who leadsds the majors in ERA (1.01) after missing most of the 2015 championshiponship run and almost all of last year after needneeding Tommy Johnn surgery. Noth-Nothing in the lefty’sy’s background speaks to him beingng this good, and the Royals might not want to wait forr regres-regres sion to his meanean — especially since he also is in his walk year.r
“They have beeneen so bad, it’s so apparparent and obvious theythey have to sell,” ann NL executive said of the Royals. “It is the elephant in the room because at this time of year, no one wants to surrender. But they are not scuffling along, and unlike, say, the Giants — who have guys under control for a while — they are loaded with free agents who will leave at the end of the year, so they have to get stuff for them now.”
4. What kind of starter do you want? In an ideal world, a team craves a power starter with a proven track record and years left until free agency. But each of those entities raises the price — think about the prospect cost the White Sox extracted from the Red Sox for Chris Sale and how much they continue to demand for Quintana.
I sense more and more teams that feel the cost — in dollars and/or prospects — has become too great when the frequency of injury, in particular, but also underperformance is so omnipotent. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told MLB radio recently: “Starting pitching has become the most overvalued [item] in the industry.industry.”
An exexecutive from another team saisaid clubs with deep bullpenspens sucsuch as the Astros and Yankeeskees who are going to be looking for a starstarter could say, yes, they would lolove Cole or Quintana, but they only consistently need five or six gogood innings to win, so why pay for an elite horse?
“I dondon’t expect big returns on startestarters [in deadline deals] because I think you can take the
next. sstep down and still win,” b a perspersonnel head said.
ThaThat could just be gamesmanmanship to try to lower priceprices since last July. Cubs prespresident of baseball operationtionsns ThTheo Epstein said, “If nott nownow, when?” in explaininingng whwhy he gave up Gleybberber TTorres to land Arolddisdis CChapman, a closer a few months from free agenagency.gy
TThe pressure to win andd of deadlines motivates extreme actions, andd indications are we aare heading toward a bbusy trading season, esspecially for starting pittchinng.