Debatin’ Clayton
Can’t sit Kershaw despite HR struggles
THERE is something comforting about owning a reliable pitcher like Clayton Kershaw. You know what you’re going to get from him.
In many ways, he is like a slow cooker. You put your ingredients in the machine at the beginning of the season, set the timer and forget about it until the timer goes off.
But, like with any machine, there often are glitches that require some maintenance. Sometimes it is a big deal, other times it is an easy fix.
Kershaw already has al l owed an uncharacteristic 17 home runs, the eighth-most in the league. It is the most he e ve r has allowed in a single season, and d he has made just 15 starts. Before this season, the most he had allowed was 16 in 2012 — over 33 starts and 227²/₃ innings.
There have been four games this season in which the 29-yearold lefty has allowed two homers or more — two of them have come since May 28 (including this week against the Mets, when he allowed four but still struck out 10 and picked up the win). He has allowed at least one homer in each of his past five starts.
Kershaw is allowing 1.48 home runs per nine innings (equal to his walks), which is the 27th-most in the majors and the highest rate of his big league career (his career average is 0.59). His home run-toflyball rate is 19.1 percent, which is the eighth-highest in the league and the worst of his career (his career average is 7.7 percent).
There are just 10 pitchers who had allowed as many long balls — including Bronson Arroyo (23), Ricky Nolasco (23), Masahiro Tanaka (21) and John Lackey (20). It is a bit unnerving to see Kershaw and Arroyo mentioned in the same sentence, considering the only thing they have in common is the fact they wear a baseball hat to work.
Kershaw reportedly has been experimenting wit h release points on his pitches, and that could be a big reason for the increase in homers. According to Baseball Savant, his pitches are hitting the center of the strike zone with higher frequency, especially his fastball (the culprit on 11 of the 17 homers), and are coming in significantly lower.
Despite this issue, he entered Friday tied for the league lead in wins (10), had the fourth-most strikeouts (115), pitched the third-most innings (103 ¹/₃) and was ranked fifth in ERA (2.61). He also was ranked fourth in WHIP (0.93) and had the fifth fewest walks (17).
His swinging strike percentage (12.5) is down slightly from last year’s 15.3 percent, but still in line with his career mark of 12 percent. His velocity has not changed, as he continues to average 93 mph with his four-seam fastball, and his strand, strikeout and groundball rates also are consistent with his career numbers.
Even with the home run trouble and the fact he has not registered a complete game or shutout this season and has pitched eight innings or more just twice, you have to realize: This is Clayton Kershaw. He will work toward fixing the issue.
There may be a few small glitches, but Kershaw is still your No. 1 pitcher — the guy you have no need to remove from your rotation.