SUMMER SALE AT CITI FIELD
Act fast or risk being left standing at altar
THE Mets have faced reality and are willing to hear offers for their walk-year players. I think they have to go further: They have to proactively try to sell before the market gets crowded.
The Mets are an injury-ravaged team that excels at nothing. They are dreadful on defense and out of the bullpen. That has produced the majors’ sixth-worst record heading into the weekend.
From this wreckage, can they really expect to overtake one from the Dodgers, Rockies, Diamondbacks or Nationals, who had the majors’ second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-best records and all of whom were at least 12 games better through Thursday?
The Mets could see how the next few weeks play out. But if they do not get in front of the trade market, I think they will regret it. They do not have great pieces to sell, and the longer they wait, the more teams will decide to put players on the market.
For example, the Marlins, who have a better record than the Mets, have indicated a readiness to move now, but not yet on outfielder Marcell Ozuna. Once Ozuna, Detroit’s J.D. Martinez and Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen, among others, are being aggressively marketed, the Mets’ chances of dealing Jay Bruce or Curtis Granderson downgrade from slim to almost none, in part because so many National League teams, in particular, are already hopelessly buried. Translation: fewer buyers, more sellers.
So the Mets not only should be open-minded now, they should be open for business. In Bruce, Granderson, Lucas Duda, Addison Reed and Neil Walker (currently on the DL), they have five walk-year players unlikely to return or receive the qualifying offer, which would guarantee a contract of more than $18 million next season if accepted and — as part of the new collective bargaining agreement — return only a draft pick following the second round if the free agent signs elsewhere.
Because they still control all of their best starting pitchers through at least next year, the Mets would not be trading to rebuild. Instead, the goals would be: 1) to save money to reinvest for the near future, and 2) to obtain pieces that either help the 2018 team or restock a farm system heavily depleted in the past few years through go-for-it trades. The Mets should emphasize big arms that, at worse, could give them better bullpen options for the future.
The key is to be proactive. For example, if the Yankees get further bad news on first baseman Greg Bird, the Mets should initiate talks about Duda before the Yankees turn to the Athletics (Yonder Alonso) or before the Royals (Eric Hosmer) or Rays (Logan Morrison) potentially fall out of the race.
The Mets definitely should be proactive with Bruce and Granderson because it is hard to find contenders clamoring for corner outfielders. Two teams that might need them now — the Blue Jays and Royals — are flirting with .500. Wait and they could fall out of the race, or they could stay in as other sellers join the conversation. The best the Mets are going to get for Bruce or Granderson are helpful pieces, so if they can push for that now, why risk it disappearing later? Better 75 cents on the dollar now then nothing later.
Here are my suggestions: Make both available to the Royals and Blue Jays and ask the key piece in return be Nathan Karns (from Kansas City) and Ezequiel Carrera (from Toronto). That both of those players are currently on the disabled list shows how difficult the Mets’ path is.
Just to make sure this is feasible, I ran the scenarios by three personnel men. No. 1: “Sadly, those are probably the best trade outcomes they will likely muster. This is not a great selling dynamic for them.” No. 2: “That all seems very reasonable to me. I kind of like it.” No. 3: “It makes sense to me. I think given the new rules of engagement with the qualifying offers, there is an advantage to jumping out front [to sell first].”
Neither Bruce nor Granderson perfectly fits the Royals, whose power already is mostly lefty. But Kansas City’s DNA is to try to win once more before this current core group disappears (Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas are in their walk years) and the Royals have surged from 10 under .500 to back in the race.
The Royals are not going to trade significant prospects because a rebuilding is on the horizon. But they have surged without Karns, who has been out with a forearm/elbow issue that apparently won’t need surgery, though he might not be back for another 4-6 weeks.
I think Karns’ good stuff would play up even more in the NL, and, like Robert Gsellman, he would offer either rotation protection or another bullpen arm, both of which would have value for the 2018 Mets.
Over the past 24 months, the Blue Jays have shown some interest in both Bruce and Granderson. Like the Royals, the Blue Jays will not give up big prospects. But the Jays also don’t want to alienate a fan base that has come back strong in the past few years. So they will improve the team within reason.
Carrera was lost to a broken foot, and the Blue Jays mainly have played Steve Pearce out of position in left. Bruce or Granderson would provide at least a leftyswinging platoon partner to deepen and diversify Toronto’s lineup.
Carrera originally a Met, was part of the big three-team trade in 2008 that brought J.J. Putz to Flushing. In 2018, he could bring athleticism and a rising lefty bat to a Mets outfield with Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto and Juan Lagares.