JOLT from the BLUE
If they want to flip Congress, Democrats should embrace the conservative coalition they forgot
REP. Kurt Schrader says he’s a member of an “endangered” species — the Blue Dogs.
Founded in 1995, the Blue Dogs are a conservative coalition of New Deal Democrats who prize fiscal responsibility and national security as their core mission, while often leaning pro-life and pro-gun. In the past, the group aligned nicely with voters in swing districts in the industrial Rust Belt states across the Midwest and in the South and even resonated with people in places like Schrader’s home state of Oregon.
Or they did — until Barack Obama got elected in 2009. As the Democrats took a sharp turn left, voters punished Blue Dog members for their party’s progressive bent, even though they didn’t represent it.
By 2016, Republican Donald Trump had stolen the Blue Dogs’ pragmatic economic message — and their thunder. Voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio, who had once been represented by Blue Dog members of Congress and supported Democratic candidates for president, flipped for the outsider candidate.
“Trump nearly won my Oregon district,” said Schrader. “I frankly blame a lot of Trump’s success . . . on Democrats. All this deep soul searching, what’s the right message and what did we do wrong? Pretty easy. We didn’t talk to average Americans.”
In 2008, when Schrader was first voted into office, the House of Representatives had 54 Blue Dogs and a Democrat majority of 263 seats compared with 178 Republican. Today there are just 18 Blue Dogs in the House, and Democrats have 194 seats compared to 240 Republican.
“We talked to an elite group of folks who had personal identity issues or cultural issues, and all those are important, but you’ve got to reach out to people and talk about their pocketbook issues, their education issues,” Schrader said.
And yet, the Blue Dogs may be experiencing a bit of a resurgence. Despite Trump’s success, the coalition actually won six seats in 2016, and Schrader is now making it his mission to restore the caucus to prominence in 2018.
“We punched way above our weight this last election cycle in the Democratic Party, and we’re going to be doing so again,” he said.
The Democrats are desperate for a new approach after Hillary Clinton lost the presidency. Last week, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer declared that his party would fight for “a better deal” for American workers: creating jobs with an infrastructure plan, boosting the minimumwage to $15 and providing paid family and sick leave. With an entirely economic focus (and no mention of progressive identity politics), Schumer seemed to echo Trump and hit upon the Blue Dogs’ core message of jobs and wages, albeit with different solutions.
Although Schrader did not speak to Schumer’s comments, he said he was buoyed by Minority House Leader Nancy Pelosi’s recent statement that she accepts Democrats who are pro-life. “It’s a start at getting back to a message that is inclusive, that is attractive to voters who were drawn to Trump’s message that says we hear you,” he said.
Although it seems obvious that Democrats should move to the middle to win back Trump voters, Schrader knows he has his work cut out for him, beginning with his own party. Unsurprisingly, progressive activists — the loudest, most energized members of the Democrat party — don’t like the Blue Dogs.
“Elections are most dominated by the most extreme elements of the parties,” said Jason Altmire, a former Blue Dog representative who held his seat in Western Pennsylvania for six years until 2012. “Centrists are largely unrepresented in Congress.”
In future elections, Schrader hopes voters will start picking representatives based on individual policies instead of their party’s platform. “I think what’ll happen is that voters, for the first time . . . are going to look at the people who are running for their particular seat and ask, ‘What is this person going to do for me? Is that person representative of my values?’ ” Schrader said.
Blue Dog Democrat Patrick Murphy, who represented Bucks County, Pennsylvania, for four years before losing his seat in 2011, is the kind of politician who should do well in Trump’s America.
The son of a beat cop, Murphy was the first Iraq War veteran to run for Congress. He campaigned for a government that lives within its means, ethics reform and a GI Bill of Rights, and he spoke eloquently on his frustration over the handling of the war. His views fit the blue-collar sensibilities of his district like a glove.
But after Obama was elected, Murphy took hard votes on TARP, bailouts, the stimulus bill and ObamaCare while favoring climate legislation — decisions that didn’t always gel with his centrist district.
The Republicans grabbed his seat and have held it for the last six years.
Now Schrader once again has his eye on Murphy’s congressional seat. Bucks County is the perfect place for a Blue Dog to run in 2018. It has a generous mix of voters who are working and middle class, suburban and rural, moderate and staunchly independent.
If Democrats take back the House next year, it will likely be because of a Blue Dog comeback, but only if the progressive arm of the party gives them a shot in the primaries.
“This is on Democrats,” said Schrader. “It’s not so much that people made the wrong choice in Trump, but that we didn’t give them any other choice.”