BACK DRAFTING
Time to start gameplanning for return of fantasy football
In the first of a six-part fantasy football draft preview series, The Post look sat overall draft strategy. Next week: tight ends and defense/specialsteams.
WELCOME back, football. We’ve missed you.
Now, with the pleasantries out of the way, we can dive head-first into gameplanning our fantasy drafts.
Every season offers a broad swath of mystery. Last season, everyone was worried about the Great Running Back Collapse of 2015, prompting the overreaction known as Zero-RB Theory. We’ve seen quarterbacks take a steady trek toward the back of the draft year after year. And after big annual gains, we now have the scourge that is the PPR leagues (which use points per reception) coming to dominate the fantasy landscape.
With much reluctance, the Madman this season makes the switch from primarily standardscoring advice to PPR as our default. (Editor’s note: Apparently our gag reflex still works.)
The mysteries eries this season are no less numermerous, but therere are few among the early picks. Expectect the first dozen or soo selections to look quitee similar to this: David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell,ll, Anto-Antonio Brown, Ezekiel Elliott, Julioo Jones, Odell Beckham ham J r. , LeSean an McCoy, Mike ke Evans, Mel- vin Gordon, , A.J. Green, Devonta Freeman, Jordy Nelson ...
That isn’t to say the Madman agrees with this exact order, but it certainly doesn’t ruffle our feathers. The one name we would add in this mix is Michael Thomas.
The point is, we don’t identify a likely bust among this top group — though certainly a few will flop because of injury or poor performance, among other things. But none are so much more risky than the next that they give us pause.
But there are few we are avoiding in the first several rounds, because we think the risks outweigh ththe potential — Marshawn Lynch,Ly Rob Gronkowski, Lamar
Miller, KeenanK Allen and Christian McCaffrey.Mc
We eliminate those from our board (unless they make an unlikely slip of several rounds or more).
Tha t makes the first few rounds fa ir ly easy: Select the guy you like best among those at the top of the board — though we do lean toward two RBs in our first three picks, provided we don’t have to ignore better wide receiver value if it slips to us.
That leaves the rest of the draft to address certain goals: 1. Draft a lot of RBs and
WRs: Draft them early — exclusively. Normally our first five picks — at least — will be confined to these two positions. Draft several in the middle, to build depth. Have a couple of bargains to target later. Ultimately, you want no fewer than 10 combined at these positions in 12-team formats that include a Flex spot (we prefer a 5-5 split, but 6-4 either way is agreeable).
2. Don’t reach early: Save your “gut picks” for later. Come the second half of the draft, that is when you jump a round early on those bargains you don’t want to miss. 3. Wait on QBs: When you pass up a quality RB or WR in the third round for Tom Brady, you spend the rest of the draft chasing that weak spot at RB2 or WR2. It impacts every pick thereafter — your RB2 or WR2 is one round weaker, your Flex is one round weaker, your best backups are weaker, etc. But, if you wait, you still can get some combination of Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, et al. We would rather have as much RB/WR stability as we can find and use a QB platoon than have stability at QB but be in search of solid RB or WR options throughout the season.
4. Wait on tight ends: Not unlike QBs, the top-tier TEs have significant separation from the rest of pack, making it tempting to snag a top option. But none of those marquee names are sure things. Gronkowski has been injured frequently. Jordan Reed is no beacon of health. We like Travis Kelce, but not in the third round. And normally there are surprise waiver finds who vault toward the top: Think Cameron Brate last season. 5. Wait on DEF/ST and
kicker: If you don’t know this by now, you shouldn’t be playing fantasy. Only in rare circumstances do we ever reach for either before the final two rounds.