ON SECOND THOUGHT ...
If they could do it over, Mets, Yanks might not make big contract offers
WOULD THEY do it again?
The two largest free-agent contracts signed last offseason were by the New York teams to two of the best players ever from Cuba — the Mets guaranteed $110 million over four years to Yoenis Cespedes and the Yankees gave Aroldis Chapman the most money ever for a closer, $86 million over five years.
Year 1 did not go well — Chapman, though, still has a chance to upgrade his perception. He also has an opportunity to make it worse.
Would the Mets and Yankees do it again?
If Cespedes and Chapman went into free agency this offseason, they almost certainly would get less than last winter. And that is not because of the shape of the market. It is because of how the duo performed — to date — in 2017.
High-end free agency always has a crap-shoot element to it, because so often teams are paying for what players have done and hoping they can maintain that performance into latter years of their career.
One reason — even with their recent stunning stumble — the Dodgers have the majors’ best record is because they went 3-for-3 in free agency last year. Kenley Jansen — who, at five years at $80 million, received the second-largest relief deal ever to Chapman — has enjoyed his best season. So has Justin Turner, after inking a four-year, $64 million pact.
Rich Hill, who signed the 10th largest free-agent deal last winter at three years at $48 million, has made his most starts since 2007 and generally been above average.
The biggest disaster from last year’s top 10 is Ian Desmond (five years, $70 million), who has played so poorly that he is not even a regular any longer. Mark Melancon signed for four years at $62 million with San Francisco hoping he could steady what was a horrendous bullpen. Instead, he produced an injury-doused, underperforming season.
Neither Cespedes nor Chapman was that bad, but both also have failed to honor their big deals like Cleveland’s Edwin Encarnacion (three years, $60 million) or Houston’s Josh Reddick (four years, $52 million).
Part of the judgment must be understanding the information teams were dealing with at the time. As Sandy Alderson said upon announcing the re-signing of Cespedes, the Mets had won since the slugger showed up at the trade deadline in 2015 and the GM saw correlation. Also, Mets ownership always is sensitive to charges of being cheap and knew it would receive that branding if Cespedes went elsewhere.
Plus, the Mets viewed themselves as a win-now team and were willing to make a win-now move. Because the Cardinals bestowed $120 million on Matt Holliday following the 2007 season, only Chris Davis with the Orioles ($161 million) received more free-agent dollars to stay where he was then Cespedes.
Cespedes’ numbers (.892 OPS) were fine when he played this year, but he lacked the impact of previous seasons. Plus, there was concern a large contract would lead to Cespedes missing more time either through aging or growing too comfortable with big money assured. His 81 games are by far the fewest he has played, as multiple leg injuries derailed his season.
Cespedes has three years at $87 million left after this year. Would the Mets be better off with that or spreading those dollars around elsewhere? There was generally a slowdown or reduction in big paydays for position players last offseason, and the Mets probably could add two bats for the cost of Cespedes, which is not a minor issue when Alderson has hinted that payroll is going to decline in 2018.
The Mets have so many mysteries both in their pitching staff and everyday core — for example, is Michael Conforto hitting third or not playing at all — that they need Cespedes for 140-plus games, 30-plus homers and meaningful hits. If they get that, his contract revers- es to worth it again.
At the time, the Yanks signed Chapman they did not have David Robertson or Tommy Kahnle or know Chad Green would evolve into an impact reliever (they did think Tyler Clippard would play a significant role). They were concerned a bout making Dellin Betances the full-time closer and wanted to deepen the pen to protect a rotation loaded with uncertainty.
Chapman t hrew harder than anyone and had been worked heavily last postseason by Cubs manager Joe Maddon. But the last time Chapman had an arm injury that put him on the disabled list was in 2011.
Chapman, though, missed a month this year with rotator cuff inflammation. But even when pitching he has lacked the same overwhelming results to the point that he briefly lost his closer role. He is throwing as hard as ever, but not missing bats with the same frequency. The intimidation factor has, at minimum, dwindled, which does not bode well for a player with four years at $60 million remaining after this season.
Now, if Chapman thrives this October to help the Yankees win rounds of the playoffs, his deal will be assessed differently. But what if he blows a game and prevents the Yankees from advancing? Off the season he has had, the doubt only would expand, and fan negativity will begin from the moment they see him next February at Steinbrenner Field.
Would the Mets and Yankees do it again? Probably not. But stay tuned, for Cespedes and Chapman still have the opportunity to change that view.