Betting on Betances
Bombers' postseason fate rests on shoulders of struggling Dellin
Dellin Betances remained in the bullpen during Tuesday’s wildcard victory, but he’ll be needed to perform in the Division Series.
CLEVELAND — The Yankees survived the wild card, but they will not advance out of the Division Series without the best of their wild card.
Somehow the Yankees assembled 8 2/3 innings of spectacular relief Tuesday night to eliminate the Twins without using one of the best relievers of the last four years.
Dellin Betances is not in witness protection, and Joe Girardi pledges he is not in the Yankees manager’s doghouse. He has been in a rut that has led to him falling from temporary closer to main setup man to setup man to guy who didn’t get into Tuesday’s sudden-death game.
But there will be no avoiding Betances in the Division Series — and whether that is good or bad news for the Yankees very well could determine if they reach the ALCS. And there should be information flowing in rather quickly. For how Thursday’s Game 1 is setting up means Betances is going to be asked to do some awfully critical setting up.
The Indians are starting Trevor Bauer, not Corey Kluber. Cleveland manager Terry Francona has said it is because Kluber could go on normal rest in Game 2 and, if necessary, Game 5. The unspoken item there (so as not to give the Yankees any “they slighted us” motivation) is that if the Indians can win the best-of-five in three or four, then Kluber would be lined up to start three times — Games 1, 4 and 7 — in the ALCS.
But this also enables Francona to treat Game 1 against the Yankees like a Game 7. Because the Indians clinched the AL Central in what feels like August, Francona had no need to push his relievers late in the season. Thus, Francona could be particularly aggressive in the opener because he has a rested pen, but also because he has Kluber scheduled for Friday and a pretty strong conviction he will get six or seven innings out of his ace. Thus, no need to have his full pen at the ready.
Conversely, with Luis Severino managing to record just one out against the Twins in a do-or-die game, Joe Girardi had to ask Chad Green for two innings, David Robertson for both a career-high 3 ¹ /3 innings and 52 pitches and Tommy Kahnle for 2 ¹/3 innings.
After the 8-4 triumph, Girardi said he anticipated that Green and Robertson would be unavailable in Division Series Game 1. That is painful because Green and Robertson have been the Yankees’ most reliable relievers and also because Indians hitters were 6-for-41 (.146) against them this year with 23 strikeouts.
Green faced 16 Indians and whiffed 12 this year. In their careers, Jose Ramirez (1-for-7), Edwin Encarnacion (1-for-21) and Carlos Santana (0-for-10) — the likely three, four and six hitters in Cleveland’s lineup — are 2-for-38 off Robertson.
Kahnle’s outing was his longest since June 2014, but he needed just 29 pitches. Thus, he could be useful to Girardi on Thursday, though perhaps not for many outs.
And here is the thing: As much as Kluber looms as a factor for how the Indians play Game 1, he is a larger figure to the Yankees, who were overwhelmed by him twice since August. Therefore, the Yankees also have to treat Game 1 like a Game 7 because their chance of winning a game started by Bauer in Cleveland is far superior to one started by Kluber, and they want to do all they can to avoid returning to The Bronx in an 0-2 hole.
This is where Betances comes in. Many Yankees noted after the wild-card win the depth of their pen is such that it could get 26 outs, yet none from Betances or Adam Warren. But Betances — because of the potential of his high-end stuff against the Indians’ deep lineup — now becomes vital, particularly on Thursday with others limited or out.
In theory, due to his short start Tuesday and that he could be held to start again in Game 4, Luis Severino could be a pen factor in Game 1 or 2. But, for the Yankees, this would just work so much better if Betances regains his manager’s confidence.
Girardi deemphasized Betances in September, not using him in as meaningful a role and then having a quick hook when the tall righty’s control would too often went haywire. Betances is pretty much a black or white reliever — he dominates or struggles.
Despite deploying strategy to the contrary, Girardi insists he has not lost faith in Betances, citing the track record as a reason to keep believing. Only Kenley Jansen has accumulated a higher Wins Above Replacement among relievers the past four years than Betances. Even with greater struggles, Betances still held opponents to a .161 average this year and topped 100 strikeouts for the fourth straight season. He whiffed 40 percent of the hitters he faced, but also walked 11 percent.
Betances only appeared once against Cleveland this year, striking out two in a perfect 1-2-3 inning. He will see a lot more of them over the next week since, as opposed to recent years, he did not have an onerous workload in 2017 while a few of his pen cohorts have been pushed hard recently by Girardi.
Betances is a wild card. His 100-mph fastball and wicked curve could alter a game and a series, but so could his penchant to lose command. If Betances is right, Girardi has another high-end, multi-inning weapon to attack games aggressively and share the burden in the pen in a greater way. If he is not, well, winning the wild card was nice.
There is no way to avoid it. Betances lurks as a vital factor in this Division Series. Which version do the Yankees get?