BLUE CRUSH
The Democrats’ victory in Virginia means the midterms in 2018 are going to be close
ALEXANDRIA, Va. — A Republican friend of mine is a suburban businessman who dutifully votes in every election, always straight party. His best friend is a rabbi, a respected member of the community and a progressive liberal.
On Tuesday the rabbi stood in line to vote for a new governor at 6:50 a.m. in the pouring rain. The Republican? He made his way to the polls eventually, five minutes before they closed.
While both Virginians cast votes (and didn’t want their names used in this article), the rabbi’s enthusiasm represents the problem Republicans are facing right now. Many Democrats are energized to vote against Donald Trump — and on the first Election Day since the president was inaugurated, they voted in droves.
Despite all the polls that showed the two candidates for Virginia governor were neck and neck, Ralph Northam clobbered his Republican opponent Ed Gillespie by 300,000 votes. Northam also won 600,000 more votes than his party’s gubernatorial candidate in 2009.
“The Democrats finally woke up. Last year we were complacent, and we didn’t have a great motivator. Now we do,” said Dane Strother, a Democratic strategist and Virginian.
Strother said this is no different from when highly motivated Republicans showed up to vote against President Barack Obama in the 2010 and 2014 midterms, bringing independents and moderate Republicans with them.
Even though Gillespie played down his endorsement from Trump, he lost because of his association with the president. “I’d argue that the Trump coalition didn’t fall apart, it’s still intact,” Strother said. But now there is a large number of “motivated people who didn’t vote for Trump” ready “to make their mark.”
Freed from the burden of the uninspiring and controversial candidacy of Hillary Clinton, Democrats were finally able to vote for a person who is low-drama and likeable. Northam is a nice, pragmatic moderate (he voted for George W. Bush not once but twice) who talks with a twang.
The newly elected governor is the first model for a successful Democratic candidate in the Trump age, and if others like him run for office, Republican majorities in congress and state legislative bodies across the country could be in jeopardy in the 2018 midterms.
All 435 congressional House seats are up for reelection next year and Democrats need just 24 seats to win back the majority.
“Fear is a much greater motivator than love,” said Strother, adding that Trump stokes fear among Democrats.
The effect was seen across the country as Democrats performed well in Washington state, Westchester and Nassau counties, and in New Jersey where Democrat Phil Murphy defeated a Republican to take the governor’s seat.
In Virginia, the Democrats won for a few reasons, but none of them were to do with the national party apparatus. Not only did Northam beat Republican Gillespie, he triumphed over former Virginia congressman Tom Perriello, a strident progressive who enjoyed the support of both Obama and liberal icon Bernie Sanders, in the primaries.
Perriello was set to be a progressive standard bearer for the Democrats in the first big post-Trump statewide election, but his radical platform flatlined. Northam handily beat Perriello by over 10 percentage points.
And while it shouldn’t be a surprise that a Democrat won the governor’s seat in a state that leans blue, Northam’s victory is notable in that he even outperformed Clinton, winning 6 full percentage points more than she did in 2016.
Northam’s surge came from affluent, college-educated surbubanites who’d been turned off by Clinton and didn’t vote for president but are now showing their presence at the polls.
This same constituency also proved their muscle on Tuesday in down-ballot races in suburban Philadelphia counties, many of which flipped for the Democrats. Affluent suburban voters are the nugget of gold — a special contingent that leads to the majority in the House for either party. And there are lessons for Republicans and Democrats who want to capture it.
Local Democrats need to pick candidates who fit their district or state, not ones dictated by the national arm of the party. Issues should be local, and any temptation to nationalize a race should be deemed too divisive and avoided at all costs.
The lesson for Republicans? Trump’s approval rating of 35 percent is a problem, yes, but what’s worse is that his party has achieved nothing so far. GOP members of the House need to accept that governing is hard. It requires compromise, taking hits and taking a stand. Doing all three might not make voters love you, but it sure will make them respect you. Respect wins votes. People fall out of love all of the time.
With the economy roaring, there is a way for Republicans to win back suburban voters — through their pocketbooks. But they have to notch up some legislative achievements to prove they are responsible for the growth climate. Because, for now, in the absence of any policy wins, there’s only Trump and his tweets.
For a lot of key suburban voters, that’s a turnoff.