TRADING IDEAS
A look at possible deal scenarios that may emerge at GM Meetings
IBELIEVE THE Mets and Yankees will make trades and — if recent history matters at all — the Yanks will make one in the next week or so.
I believe it will be very difficult for the Marlins to move Giancarlo Stanton, no matter their level of willingness to deal the best player in franchise history. After all, it will take Derek Jeter being Mr. November now as an executive to find a swap where a team takes on all of the 10 years at $290 million the slugger is owed and give Miami quality prospects back.
So as the GM Meetings begin in Orlando this week, let’s offer trade scenarios for the Yankees, Mets and Marlins as an exercise to understand needs, goals and possibilities as much as anything else:
1. Mets send Robert Gsellman and Luis Guillorme to the Indians for Jason Kipnis.
I also wondered about Gsellman, Guillorme and Dominic Smith for the White Sox’s Jose Abreu, but it is hard to find folks in the industry who are big boosters of Smith.
The Mets have traded with the Indians twice for established second basemen — Roberto Alomar and Carlos Baerga — and both were disasters. And Kipnis is coming off an injury-filled (hamstring mainly) poor season (.705 OPS). But in 2015-16 he had an .817 OPS. He turns 31 in April.
While Kipnis was sidelined, Jose Ramirez shifted to second and emerged an MVP possibility, forcing Kipnis to center field (where he had not played since college). He has either two years at $30.5 million or (if his 2020 option is picked up) three years at $44.5 million. Cleveland is a win-now team, yet still always has to worry about what is now a larger payroll than ever before. One NL executive said he thought the Indians were very open to moving Kipnis and might even eat dollars to do so.
The Mets do not have a ton of financial wiggle room or trade commodities. Gsellman and Seth Lugo probably will intrigue analytic-leaning teams that see mostly untapped upside potential there if their stuff is deployed in a different way. Lugo, though, has a chronic elbow issue that lowers his trade value.
The Mets are looking for offense, and Minnesota’s Brian Dozier and the Tigers’ Ian Kinsler might be better 2018 players, but they are free agents after next season as opposed to Kipnis. And, obviously, the Mets will have great insight into Kipnis because new manager Mickey Callaway had worked in the Indians’ organization during Kipnis’ whole career, since 2013 as pitching coach.
2. Yankees send Starlin Castro, Tyler Austin and Luis Cessa to the Giants for Joe Panik.
The Giants are looking to add power, specifically righty power. Panik loses homers at AT&T Park that I believe he adds with his lefty stroke at Yankee Stadium. Just as attractive is that no qualified hitter struck out a lower percentage last year than Panik, and the Yankees might have been too susceptible to the whiff in the past playoffs. He’s a better defender than Castro. He grew up a Jeter/Yankees fan, went to St. John’s and lives in Duchess County in the offseason. In the short term, he plays second with Gleyber Torres becoming the regular third baseman.
And Panik is just entering arbitration, which would help with the Yankees’ plan to get under the $197 million luxury-tax threshold. Conversely, because adding Castro’s two-year, $22 million remainder would further push the Giants over the threshold, the Yanks have to sweeten the deal with extra stuff.
Austin and Cessa were picked, but it easily could be Garrett Cooper and Bryan Mitchell or elements from their righty relief depth. Between now and 8 p.m. on Nov. 20, every team has to set its 40-man roster for the Rule 5 draft, and the Yankees simply cannot put all the players they would like on the 40-man.
Many of their trades in the past 36 months have been about dealing players before exposing them to the Rule 5, including November deals the past two years sending out Jose Pirela and James Pazos just before rosters had to be set. In addition, the Yanks made significant trades as early as during the GM Meetings in 2014 (Francisco Cervelli for Justin Wilson) and 2015 (John Ryan Muprhy for Aaron Hicks). So even while looking for a manager, the Yanks’ history says they will act and act soon.
The Giants badly want to add a center fielder, so Hicks would be more their desire, and I think they are the early front-runners for free agent Lorenzo Cain.
I also keep wondering if there is a bigger trade between the Yanks and Giants with Jacoby Ellsbury (as a salary counterbalance) and more significant power prospect — Clint Frazier perhaps — going to San Francisco for Jeff Samardzija, especially if the Yankees fail to land Shohei Otani and need to put sure innings into their rotation. 3. Marlins get Christian Arroyo, Seth Corry from the Giants, and Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist from the Cubs; the Giants get Stanton; and the Cubs get Johnny Cueto. For the Marlins, the best match would be the Cardinals and their deeper system. But Stanton has a no-trade clause and there is doubt if he would accept St. Louis. The Giants do not have a deep system plus they have that luxury tax concern, so they get rid of salary (Cueto is owed $87 million over four years) and re-direct Happ to the Marlins.
Chicago needs another starter and probably is not taking a Cueto risk unless it can get out of some money (Zobrist is owed $28 million over the next two years). To get out of Stanton’s $290 million obligation, the Marlins have to absorb Zobrist and hope to spin him elsewhere.
Moving Stanton for the financially strapped Marlins is vital yet complicated. The length and value of the deal for a player who has had health problems in his prime is worrisome. His no-trade clause is a factor. Plus, J.D. Martinez is probably a better overall hitter and available just for cash in the free agent market, and no one, for example, would be surprised if traditionally fast-acting Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski tried to solve some of Boston’s power woes with a quick strike to land Martinez — which would take the Red Sox out of play for Stanton.