WISCY’S BIG SHOT
NO SPORT could make a regular-season weekend mean so much — and none could follow by making it mean so little. Just last week, college football showcased its best side, featuring three top-10 matchups. Now, one of the ugliest parts of the sport takes the spotlight, with three of the top teams in the nation essentially taking byes in the penultimate week of the regular season, via guarantee games.
Top-ranked Alabama will host Mercer, paying the guests $600,000 for accepting the beating. Clemson, the No. 2 team, will welcome The Citadel, handing over $400,000 for the worry-free win against an FCS team. And No. 6 Auburn has invited Louisiana-Monroe, donating $1.4 million so the Tigers will be well-rested for next week’s Iron Bowl. (Oh, but best of luck to 3-6 Florida State in getting anyone but season-ticket holders to show up, and make its $475,000 gift to Delaware State worthwhile).
So, instead of the season getting better as it gets later, there is only one matchup of ranked teams this week: No. 5 Wisconsin against No. 24 Michigan. Fortunately for the undefeated and long-ignored Badgers, they have the spotlight when they need it most.
Wisconsin’s underwhelming strength of schedule is the root of its national disrespect. That will significantly improve with Saturday’s game against the Wolverines, and a likely Big Ten title game meeting with Ohio State, but in their first game against a ranked opponent last week, the Badgers’ defense was at its most impressive. After Iowa dropped 55 points on Ohio State, Wisconsin held the Hawkeyes to 66 total yards, allowing its only points on interception returns.
For the season, Wisconsin is allowing just 13.4 points per game, and a nation-best 247.6 yards. Though Michigan has been nearly as dominant defensively, allowing 16.4 points and 254.8 yards, the Wolverines’ ninthranked run defense has allowed an average of 191 yards on the ground in their two losses.
Big Ten rushing leader Jonathan Taylor will expose the Wolverines once more, as
WISCONSIN (-7) makes Michigan’s mediocre offense look weaker than usual. Following losses by Notre Dame and Georgia, Wisconsin should be a lock for the College Football Playoff if it wins out, and with this win, the Badgers will prove an undefeated Big Ten champion would deserve to be there. Tulsa (+22) over SOUTH FLORIDA: Charlie Strong has done a tremendous job in his first season with the Bulls. If he can get them not to look ahead to their massive matchup against Central Florida next week, it would be his best work of the season. Rutgers (+11) over INDIANA: Take a picture. This probably won’t happen again anytime soon.
Tcu (-61/2) over TEXAS TECH: The Horned Frogs have several key injuries — including quarterback Kenny Hill, who is questionable — but TCU’s defense has been too strong all season to fall apart for a second straight week. ARKANSAS (+11½) over Mississippi State: Last week, I ignored one of my supposedly non-negotiable rules — picking a team with at least 80 percent of the public’s backing — then watched Michigan State get annihilated by Ohio State. Let’s learn from my mistake.
Virginia (+19) over MIAMI: I know, I heard, The U is back. But a Saturday matinee against the Cavaliers isn’t quite as easy to get up for as a hyped prime-time battle against Notre Dame. This is still the same Miami team that spent October winning its four games against unranked opponents by a total of 18 points. GEORGIA (-21) over Kentucky: If you believe the Bulldogs were one of the best
two lieve teams in the in bounce-back. the country until last week, betriple-option Navy (+18½) fueled, over top-ranked NOTRE DAME: rushing The attack Fighting in the Irish country to get isn’t back the to normal. best way for the KANSAS (+37) over Oklahoma: The Sooners, with Baker Mayfield, have won by an average of 54 points in the past two meetings, but Oklahoma’s defense is still atrocious, and always a candidate to let anyone sneak through the back door. OHIO STATE (-41) over Illinois: As each year passes, it becomes more and more incredible that Lovie Smith’s Bears team was driving with a chance to take the lead in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XLI. Kansas State (+20) over OKLAHOMA STATE: The Wildcats rarely let a game get out of hand, having suffered their five losses by an average of nine points, PENN STATE (-26) over Nebraska: If only Kerry Collins and Ki-Jana Carter got their deserved shot against the Cornhuskers 23 years ago. TENNESSEE (+15½) over Lsu: I have a feeling this Brady Hoke has got a bright future.
Ucla (+16) over USC: The Bruins have lost by at least 19 points the past two years, and their defense gives them no shot to win, but Josh Rosen — who missed last year’s game — will step up to create a shootout in his final matchup with Sam Darnold. Utah (+17½) over WASHINGTON: After essentially being officially eliminated from playoff contention, the Huskies fittingly return to playing in the shadow of Sunday morning. Turns out you weren’t missing all that much while you were sleeping. BEST BETS: Wisconsin, Georgia, Kansas State THIS SEASON: 93-68-4 BEST BETS: 21-12 2014-16 RECORD: 381-370-7