JUDGEMENT DAY
CAN YANKS ROOK PULL OFF BIG MVP UPSET TONIGHT?
HAL WANTED JOE OUT, TOO
A month ago, Jose Altuve said he’d “probably” vote for Aaron Judge for American League MVP if given the chance, endorsing the rookie right fielder while Altuve and the Astros faced the Yankees in the ALCS.
Altuve’s manager, A.J. Hinch, di sa g re e d wit h hi m, say i ng Altuve’s consistency throughout the season should earn him the award.
On Thursday, Judge and Altuve will find out who’s right when the award is announced (6 p.m., MLB Network), as Judge looks to become the first Yankee since Alex Rodriguez a decade ago to become the MVP. Judge won AL Rookie of the Year on Monday, and would be just the third player in MLB history (joining Ichiro Suzuki and Fred Lynn) to pull off the ROY-MVP double.
While most of the talk throughout the playoffs focused on Altuve being the favorite — largely because of the horrif ic slump Judge endured during the second half of the regular season — a look back makes it more debatable.
Altuve led the AL in hits (204), was an All-Star for a fourth consecutive season and finished with the highest batting average (.346) for a second straight year.
He was also the model of consistency, never finishing a month with an OPS lower than .832 and he played solid defense at second, helping lead the Astros to the AL West title.
It was that constant productivity that Hinch pointed to in supporting Altuve. And Altuve finished with a WAR (8.3, as calculated by baseball-reference.com) — higher than Judge’s 8.1.
But even with all that — and Judge’s disappearing act after he won the Home Run Derby in Miami in July — a compelling case can still be made for the Yankees’ right fielder, who set a rookie record with 52 homers.
Judge, in his f i rst f ull year in the majors, topped Altuve in OPS (1.049-.957), OPS+ (17 1 , 164), RBI s (114, 81) and also paced the AL not only in home runs, but in walks (127) and runs scored (128).
The league-leading 208 strikeouts might be an issue for some when it comes to Judge, but he also played well in right field, perhaps negating what some see as an advantage for Altuve.
Ju d ge ’s e me r - gence was also one of the most important factors in the Yankees getting to the playoffs in what was expected to be a rebuilding season.
If recent history is any indication, Judge has a chance — in part because of the fact the Angels’ Mike Trout played in only 114 games.
Trout led the AL in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and OPS-plus. He was on pace for another potentially historic season when he missed a month and a half from May-July with a thumb injury.
In his sixth full season in the majors, this will be the first time Trout doesn’t finish in the top two in voting; Judge, Altuve and Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez are the finalists.
Ramirez led the AL in doubles and proved to be versatile, playing second and third for the AL Central champs.
But Judge’s power numbers could give him the advantage. A year ago, Trout won the MVP with the highest OPS by a nonDH, narrowly beating out Boston’s Mookie Betts.
In 2015, Toronto’s Josh Donaldson edged out Trout despite a lower WAR and OPS — although the Blue Jays made the playoffs and the Angels did not.
Trout won his first MVP in 2014 over Detroit’s Victor Martinez with a lower OPS, but a higher WAR. And Martinez was primarily a DH for the Tigers, which worked in Trout’s favor.
The two years prior to that, Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera captured the award despite a lower WAR than Trout, but he had a higher OPS.
Stats aside, the outcome will likely come down to whether Judge’s tailspin after the All-Star Game is too much to overcome.
Perhaps impacted by his participation in the Home Run Derby or the left shoulder injury that bothered him at times during the year, Judge was dreadful at the plate for more than a month.
From July 14 through Aug. 26, Judge went just 25-for-142 with seven homers and 63 strikeouts and had an OPS of .678.
But when it appeared he may have fallen out of the MVP race, Judge recovered and had his best month of the season in September, with 15 homers and an OPS of 1.352, as the Yankees secured a wild-card spot.
Because the voting is done prior to the postseason, Judge’s 1-for-20, 16 strikeout showing in the ALDS won’t be considered, nor will his resurgence in the ALCS against Houston.