FADE TO REST
Dodge Gronk in final real DFS slate
DAILY fa nt a sy pl aye rs get one last crack at the NFL this week with a two-game conference championship slate. And no, we don’t count the games that lump together the Super Bowl with the Pro Bowl.
With just a pair of games to choose from, pickings are slim. It will be impossible to avoid all the “chalk” plays — players with high ownership rates. It will be more diff icult to f ind contrarian options — those players with high upside and low projected ownership.
So our f i rst goal when building a DFS tournament roster will be to avoid expensive chalk who we think will have a hard time performing to their price point. And this points us directly at Rob Gronkowski.
Expect Gronk to be heavily owned for a number of reasons. First, he is Gronk, and he is healthy, which normally means he is capable (likely) of producing big fantasy points.
Also, the Jaguars allowed the fewest yards passing in the league — by far — during the regular season. This will scare some off the Patriots wide receivers. Plus, Gro n k is averaging 15.7 per catch this season. That speaks to his depth of target — routinely running deep routes. But these advantages likely won’t apply to Sunday’s game. 1. The Jaguars, over the f inal four weeks of the regular season, allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. 2. During that same stretch, jacksonville was middle-of-thepack vs. receivers and seventh-worst against quarterbacks. 3. The heavy pressure the Jags put on the QB (secondmost sacks) makes it more difficult for the QB to deliver deeper, long-developing routes. Put it all together, and you have justification to fade Gronk, and evidence to suggest a less fearful approach to others in the Pats’ passing game. To get shares of New England, instead look to Dion Lewis and Danny Amendola. Good luck, and we’ll see yo u next season.