Eagles’ analy t ics proving to be a winning formula
The Eagles are one win from their third trip to the Super Bowl in franchise history, and were one of the NFL’s top turnaround stories this season after improving from 7-9 to 13-3.
Second-year quarterback Carson Wentz deserves plenty of credit, as does a fourth-ranked defense. At least three members of the coaching staff have been reported as candidates for head coaching vacancies. But there’s another big reason for the team’s success: The Eagles have embraced an analytics-based approach in key situations, and have a head coach who is committed to the process.
Doug Pederson, also in his second year with the Eagles, not only embraces the idea of using analytics to make decisions, he talks to members of the team’s analytics department during games, according to ESPN.
“After [Pederson has] made the thirddown call, the phones can be silent for a few seconds, and one of the guys might chime in and say, ‘Hey Coach, if this ends up short fourth-and-2’ — I’m using fake terminology — ‘It’s green, go for it. The charts say go for it,’ ” offensive coordinator Frank Reich said to ESPN. “Or, ‘Hey, if it’s anything less than fourth-and-3, we’re good. Other than that, it’s your call, Coach.’ Or, ‘Anything more than fourthand-10, no.’
“The analogy I think of is kind of like a stoplight. There’s green, there’s yellow and there’s red, and then there’s shades of green, there’s shades of yellow and then there’s shades of red. So some of them are, ‘Hey, it’s green. Yellow, proceed with caution’ — and that’s how it operates.”
Two members of the Eagles’ analytics department have Pederson’s ear during games. One is Ryan Paganetti, who has an economics degree from Dartmouth and is officially a coaching assistant who works with linebackers.
They speak with Pederson about specific types of coaching strategy — when to go for it on fourth down, when to call timeouts during a two-minute drill, etc. The Eagles have gone for it on fourth down more than any team in the NFL in Pederson’s two seasons, and it has been a huge success this season.
The Eagles have scored a touchdown or field goal on 13 of the 18 drives in which they converted a fourth down, totaling 85 points (4.7 points per drive) in situations in which they might have punted or kicked a field goal instead of trying for a touchdown, according to ESPN Stats & Information. When they have gone for it on fourth down and failed, the other team didn’t score any points on the subsequent drive all season, ESPN noted.
“A lot of teams — ours is one — where it’s all [decided] is in the offseason, done with mathematics,” Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie told the website. “It’s not based on any form of instinct. If it’s going to be 50/50, 48/52, then a coach is going to have their instinctual predilection, right? But what we found is, there’s been so many decisions over time that are too conservative for the odds of maximizing your chance to win at the opportunity.”