AGENT OF CHANGE
Miller's success big factor in slow free agency
GOODYEAR, Ariz. — We are discussing causes for the freeagent slowdown and I use the term “confluence of reasons” and Andrew Miller calls the variety of explanations “a perfect storm.”
The Indians super reliever returns a few times to an underappreciated, but vital piece of the “storm,” the sale of the Marlins and subsequent teardown. That led to four key veterans getting traded and assuming roster/money slots that otherwise might have gone to free agents and led to a different domino fall.
“That is a big piece of this pie,” Miller said.
For example, if Giancarlo Stanton is not available, do the Yankees instead use their available cash to sign Yu Darvish in December, establishing a different chain of events with free-agent starters? Or if the Cardinals do not get Marcel Ozuna, do they have to find power in free agency with J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas, recalibrating the price points for available hitters?
Want another underappreciated reason for a free-agent market like no other? Andrew Miller. It is, of course, unintentional and also ironic since Miller and Washington’s Daniel Murphy hold the highest elected roles for players at the union — Players Association Representative.
Both in salary and usage, Miller is essentially the ground zero in where so many teams want to currently spend their dollars. Not long ago the very people now in charge of teams were saying relievers were fungible, easy to unearth and volatile and, thus, not worth heavy investment.
Then after the 2014 season Miller became the first reliever to be paid like a high-end closer on a multiyear deal without being guaranteed the closing role. He had just one career save — that tabulated by fortune in extra innings rather than design — when the Yankees gave him a four-year, $36 million deal (he did initially close for the Yankees).
Ready for more irony? Miller turned down four years at $40 million from the Astros because he wanted to go to an annual winner and “I thought the Astros were a few more years away. It shows how wrong I was.”
The Yankees lost to Houston in the wild-card game in 2015 and then were sellers at the following July trade deadline, dealing Miller to the Indians. The Astros won the World Series last year.
But the Indians nearly won the year before, in part because manager Terry Francona deployed Miller when the game situation necessitated, particularly in the playoffs. He had no set role beyond ultimate weapon. Suddenly, those ex- ecutives who were calling relievers “fungible” were fervid to find their Miller — or three of him.
In free agency’s nuclear winter, relievers — particularly non-closers — scored big. Teams now value relievers who can efficiently secure outs late in games — not just the ninth inning.
Miller deflected credit to Yankees general manager Brian Cashman and Francona for, respectively, shunning norms to give him the contract and then to use him in such a nontraditional way. But, of course, none of it matters if the player flops. Miller, instead, represents one of the greatest free-agent buys in history. He stands as a seminal player now, changing pay and usage for relievers and, by happenstance, others.
Consider Brandon Morrow, Tommy Hunter and Anthony Swarzak each signed a minor league contract in the 2016-17 offseason, thrived in 2017 and each signed a two-year deal for between $14 million and $21 million at the December Winter Meetings as position players were mostly shunned.
Meanwhile, Logan Morrison and Moustakas, both of whom hit 38 homers last year, received one-year, $6.5 million pacts as teams continued to move away from the more single-dimensional power hitter.
“We have to understand the economics of how this works,” Miller said. “If one position or one skill is valued more highly, you probably will have another skill valued not as highly.”
Miller said it is part of the lesson he and the players must absorb. The thoughtful lefty is upset and discouraged — like most players and their union — at the number of teams that decided to mainly sit out the market (translation: tank) and the volume of players who worked diligently to reach free agency only to have the financial rewards change on them.
But Miller also said “we signed a contract, the collective bargaining agreement is our contract” and that players have to spend the next three years trying to figure out how to make life as best as possible within the confines of the rules while better preparing for the next negotiation. Miller gets to see how the world treats him next offseason, since he is entering his walk year.
“It is impossible not to think about it,” Miller said.
Of course, Miller should have fewer worries about getting paid. For that he can thank the guy who pretty much changed this world.
Himself.