Bracketology 101
Digging deep in the numbers to pick Final Four faves
By GREG JOYCE
Every March you hear about the odds of a 12 seed beating a 5 and those tricky 7-10 matchups, but what about trends not linked to seeds? Here’s a look at some statistics regarding recent Final Four teams and national champions:
Is riding a conference champ that seems hot the right move? It’s no sure bet. Of the past 100 teams to make the Final Four, dating back to 1993, just 41 have been conference champions. Only 12 of the past 25 national champions were also conference champs. But there is a good chance the Final Four will include at least one conference winner. Only twice in the past 25 years (2009, 2003) have al l four teams made the Final Four with at-large bids.
Over the past 25 years, 20 teams have reached back-to-back Final Fours. With South Carolina and Oregon failing to make a return trip to the tournament, North Carolina and Gonzaga have a shot to continue the trend and get back to the final weekend. The Tar Heels are trying to make it three straight Final Fours, a feat just three teams (Kentucky, 1996-98; Michigan State, 19992001 and UCLA, 2006-08) have accomplished in the past 25 years.
It’s easy to fall in love with the teams that make a living beyond the arc, but it’s a risky move to get attached to them in March. Only six of the top 100 3-point shooting tournament teams over the past 10 seasons have advanced to the Final Four. Three of them have gone on to win the whole thing — Connecticut in 2014, North Carolina in 2009 and Kansas in 2008 — but the odds are stacked against them. The top 10 3-point shooting teams in this year’s tournament include Purdue, Michigan State, Arkansas, Nevada, South Dakota State, TCU, Kansas and Villanova.
In the age of one-and-dones in college basketball, how much do NBA-ready players help win a national title? Of the past 12 No. 1 draft picks — since the NBA stopped selecting players straight out of high school — only Kentucky’s Anthony Davis (2012), Memphis’ Derrick Rose (2008) and Ohio State’s Greg Oden (2007) led their teams to the final. Davis’ team was the only one to win the national championship. And over the past five years, just two top-five draft picks led their teams to the Final Four.
Instead, the most successful teams over the past 12 years largely have featured plenty of experience. The combined starting lineups of the past 12 national champions were composed of 15 seniors, 22 juniors, 12 sophomores and 11 freshmen. Just three teams — 2015 Duke, 2012 Kentucky and 2011 UConn — regularly started more than one freshman.
What does that mean for this year? Experienced lineups like Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Gonzaga, Michigan and North Carolina seem to fit the winning mold.
Don’t get scared away by teams that struggle from the free-throw line. Great free-throw shooting hardly is a prerequisite to go far in the tournament. Over the past 10 years, just 16 of the 40 teams that reached the Final Four were in the top 100 nationally in free-throw percentage. So don’t automatically rule out teams like Kansas, Cincinnati, Michigan and Texas Tech just because of their woes from the charity stripe.
“Defense wins championships” is the mantra, and though t here a re certainly some outliers —like 127 th-ranked North Carolina in 2017,110 th-ranked Duke in 201 5 and 275th-ranked North Carolina in 2009 — the mantra has proved correct more often than not lately. Eight of the past 12 national champs have had top-50 scoring defenses. Some of the teams that fit that criteria this year are Virginia, Cincinnati, Michigan, Texas Tech, Michigan State and Purdue.