Dodgers & Astros may not be who you think they are

Thanks to the 2018 interleague schedule rotation, baseball fans will be treated to a World Series rematch this weekend when the defending American League champion Astros visit the defending National League champion Dodgers.

Given how well both teams are playing this season, this also could be a World Series preview for a couple of months down the road. The Dodgers recently became favorites on the futures board to win the NL because of trade acquisitions. Houston is on the short list in the AL with the Red Sox and Yankees.

Because the Astros and Dodgers have multiple power hitters, there’s a perception in some media and betting circles that both rely “too much” on home runs, that their luck can’t hold up two years in a row, and that true champions know how to manufacture runs when needed.

We put together a quick stat to test this perception. Regular readers know we like to focus on “road only” hitting stats to help take home ballpark pollution out of the mix. Let’s see how the Astros and Dodgers perform at getting hits and drawing walks if you SUBTRACT out home runs (listing leaders through Wednesday night’s action):

Counts and rankings in this stat move erratically in-season because only half of MLB is playing on the road at any given time. But, at a glance, bettors already can see that the Dodgers and Astros are among the sport’s elite at making offense happen even if you subtract out homers. The Cubs really impress, which will be important to remember in the NL brackets down the road.

Where are the Yankees? Well, that’s a team that may rely too much on home runs. They registered in the bottom third of MLB at a disappointing 541 entering the four-game series at Boston.

Bottom line: Don’t assume power teams are one-dimensional. Smart bettors evaluate the full scope of skill sets.