BIG BLUE DIVIDE
Bettors all in, Vegas pros skeptical of 2018 Giants
LAS VEGAS — Almost everything is new. The skunkspray stench from the Giants’ three-win season has been replaced by that new-car smell, an offseason makeover that started with the general manager and coach and continued with the addition of hyped rookie running back Saquon Barkley.
And there’s much more, including the return of newly healthy wideout Odell Beckham Jr., who might be the biggest star of the show.
A fresh start was desperately needed. Still, the franchise’s face is the same old quarterback. Eli Manning is 37 and it has been a long time since he led Sunday drives in the fast lane.
“I’m not a Manning fan,” said Nick Bogdanovich, director of William Hill sports books. “But the Giants have a lot of talent.”
Manning’s value is debatable, yet there’s no doubt the betting public is buying the Giants as one of the NFL’s most improved teams and a playoff threat. The masses seem convinced a Big Blue-print is in place for a quick turnaround.
Bogdanovich said William Hill’s books, especially in New Jersey, are “buried” in Super Bowl futures bets on the Giants, currently at 25/1 odds, and there is heavy action over the team’s season win total of 7.
At the Westgate SuperBook, where “Yes/No” playoff propositions are posted on all 32 teams, there are 37 “Yes” tickets on the Giants to make the playoffs at +300 and zero “No” tickets at -400. Do those people realize this was a 3-13 team?
“All I hear is people talking up the Giants,” Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons said. “I think Manning is shot. I would think the Giants win five to seven games, and I don’t think they are a playoff team.”
It should be noted Salmons is an Eagles fan from Philadelphia. Regardless, he has reasons aside from Manning for being pessimistic.
Tony Miller, the Golden Nugget sports book director, is singing an optimistic tune.
“I think the Giants can make a run at winning the division,” Miller said. “Being a Cowboys fan and knowing the NFC East, that’s the team that scares me. The Giants are much improved.
“Saquon will take a lot of pressure off of Eli. OBJ is fully healthy and ready to go. I think getting [Nate] Solder on the offensive line to protect Eli’s blind side is huge. I really like Barkley. I can’t remember the last time the Giants had a stud running back. Now they got one and that’s a game-changer for that team.”
The Westgate lists Philadelphia as the -160 favorite in the NFC East, followed by Dallas (3/1), the Giants (6/1) and Washington (8/1).
Erosion in a franchise typically starts at the top, and so does rebuilding. The Giants are perceived as far more competent with general manager Dave Gettleman and coach Pat Shurmur calling the shots instead of former coach Ben McAdoo.
“Another thing is McAdoo is gone,” Miller said. “That was just a joke.”
Beckham played in four games last season before going down with a broken left ankle. Manning missed him, and McAdoo’s predictable offense was punchless without him, ranking 31st in the league in scoring at 15.4 points per game. Now, there’s an array of dynamic weapons.
“I’m cautiously optimistic, as last year all that could possibly go wrong did go wrong,” said Bruce Marshall, the lead handicapper for The Gold Sheet. “Shurmur should be an upgrade from McAdoo, and [James] Bettcher looks a good hire as defensive coordinator.
“Saquon might add another year or two to Eli’s career, but they will not make a playoff run if Eli continues to slide. Therein I believe lies the key to the season. A bad Eli has really hurt the Giants in recent years, and his good games were becoming further and further between. If all breaks right, the Giants could make a playoff run. I won’t dismiss them just yet, but not expecting it. I’m thinking more like 7-9 or maybe 8-8.”
Need another reason to be negative? The Giants could go off as underdogs in each of their first seven games.
The Giants’ eight opponents before their Week 9 bye — Jacksonville, Dallas, Houston, New Orleans, Carolina, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Washington — have a projected average win total of 8.8, based on William Hill’s posted lines.
“Looking at their schedule for the first eight weeks, it’s insane how hard it is,” Salmons said. “The game against the Jaguars in Week 1 is almost like a must-win game for the Giants.”