But he’ll probably still coast to re-elex

Despite his indictment on insidertrading charges, upstate Rep. Chris Collins remains favored to win reelection in his conservative district, according to political insiders.

“It’s still a long shot for the Democrats to win the seat,” said one Democratic Party source familiar with the Western New York district.

“You don’t have the Democratic energy up there. It’s the most conservative seat in the state.”

Democratic candidate Nate McMurray doesn’t even live in the district and was considered a sacrificial lamb before the charges against Collins were made public.

“It’s an uphill battle. It’s a gerrymandered seat,” conceded Erie County Democratic Party chairman Jeremy Zellner.

“But we have a much better chance today of winning the seat. Collins has shown his true colors.”

The congressional district, which takes in the suburban and rural areas around Buffalo and Rochester, is solid Trump country. The president won it by 24.3 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

McMurray, town supervisor of Grand Island (population 20,879), has raised just $131,000 compared to Collins’ $1.3 million.

“We’re feeling more and more confident every minute,” McMurray said at a press conference.

“They still have more money than we’ll ever have [but] if this wouldn’t have come out, he would’ve coasted in.”

Collins’s disclosure forms show he is worth nearly $60 million and could pour part of his fortune into the contest, sources said.

Soon after the indictment was announced, Collins sent an e-mail to supporters saying he intends to stay in the race and clear his name.

But state and national Democratic leaders insisted Collins’ seat is now in play.

“This certainly doesn’t help the Republican cause,” said Geoff Berman, executive director of the state Democratic Party.

Upstate Republicans were shocked.

“The charges look serious to me. I don’t know how much damage it does. It’s a solidly Republican area,” said Buffalo businessman Carl Paladino, a Collins ally who ran for governor in 2010.

“There’s no way we would want to lose this seat.”