Red-zone scoring is gateway to covering spread

As NFL handicapping continues to evolve, it’s become more important to focus on whether or not offenses can finish drives.

Many teams can move the ball in the middle of the field and rack up impressive-looking (or adequate-looking) yardsper-play averages in the process. But who can score six points at the end of the drive instead of three? Who avoids disastrous turnovers?

Now that the dress rehearsals are over, it’s time to direct your attention to what’s going to win bets in the regular season. This is a stat you should make a point of emphasis:

That data is from teamrankings.com. Your Super Bowl teams were second and third best. The surprise team of the league in terms of “arriving” in 2017 was Jacksonville. Now you know how it happened. Experienced quarterbacks in all five spots (until Aaron Rodgers got hurt for the Packers). That quintet covered 57.5 percent of its regular-season games last year, 60.9 percent if you exclude those Rodgers missed.

Of the teams with the worst percentages, Denver traded for a new quarterback, Indianapolis brought in a coach who used to play quarterback, Arizona fired its coach and brought in a new quarterback, and Kansas City traded its starter to give a potential young phenom a chance. Only the Chargers stood pat. Those five were just 46.7 percent against the spread in 2017.

What about the New York teams? The Jets were surprisingly average at 54.6 percent (tied for 14th in the NFL). The Giants were an awful 48.7 percent (tied with the Browns for 25th). You know the Giants brought in a new coach who was the offensive coordinator with the NFC runner-up (the Vikings finished 13th without their first choice at quarterback).

For teams, the lesson is very clear. Finish your drives with touchdowns or management will find somebody who can. For bettors, invest in teams with the skill sets to finish consistently (experience and quality at QB, varied weaponry). Don’t waste your money on teams without those skills (predictable offenses led by mediocre or relatively inexperienced QBs). You can be sure VSiN will monitor this stat for you through the NFL season.

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