Two key factors that cast doubt on Cubbies

There are two active MLB series that are potential playoff previews for early October. Yesterday we talked about Yankees/A’s. Today, let’s check in on the Cubs visiting the Brewers.

Though, there’s still almost a month of regular-season baseball to be played, the Cubs are in great shape to earn the No. 1 seed and home field through the NL brackets. That’s a big part of why they lead the futures board for the pennant. Assuming it holds, Chicago would open against the wild-card survivor. Milwaukee is currently best positioned to host that game

In recent action, the Cubs have surged above a crowded NL pack. But a closer look shows that much of that “surge” came on a 6-1 homestand against the Reds and Mets, non-contenders playing out the string. Yesterday’s Yankees discussion included a chart showing records versus contenders since the AllStar break. The Cubs didn’t grade out as impressively dominant in that measure.

Treading water versus playoff-caliber teams means you’re likely playoff caliber. You belong. But it doesn’t suggest any sort of head-to-head edges come October. Do the current standings paint a misleading picture of Chicago’s NL championship hopes?

Here at VSiN, we see two potential skeletons in the closet moving forward. First, there’s no way pitcher Cole Hamels is going to continue the extreme dominance of his first seven starts, when he pitched to a 1.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings in 6.5 innings per start.

Regression is going to be a bear! Chicago won his first six starts, all against non-contenders. Start No. 7 was a Labor Day loss in Milwaukee.

The second involves the offense. Though this unit is capable of putting up big numbers versus weak pitching, it has struggled versus quality arms. And, since the All-Star break, it hasn’t sparkled compared to other contenders in a great indicator stat called “weighted on-base average” (source: FanGraphs):

This stat assigns the proper analytics value to each type of hit. Despite a manageable schedule, the Cubs offense isn’t consistently impressing in the second half of the season.

Wednesday night’s series finale will provide an important test for the Cubs. There aren’t many left! A return bout next week versus the Brewers at Wrigley, a mid-September series in Arizona, and what might be a lame-duck weekend finale versus St. Louis to close out the season.

Handicappers and bettors will learn a lot more about Chicago’s championship readiness over the next week.