It’s the jobs, stupid

Why GOP likely maintains control of Congress

THERE are only three more employment reports before the November congressional elections. One of them — the report for August — arrives on Friday.

And expectations among the experts are that there will be good news in the August report — 195,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate that dips slightly to 3.8 percent from 3.9 percent. August’s job growth is expected to beat July’s.

My contention all along has been that economics — pocketbook issues like jobs and wages — will be the main things on Americans’ minds when they vote on Nov. 6.

That’s why I’ve been saying that I don’t think there will be a significant change in the composition of Congress, with Republicans continuing to control both the House and Senate. You don’t mess with success is the way voters will be thinking, and right now the economy looks like a success.

Most of the political polls disagree with me, so we will know in two months whether the polls — which missed horrifically in the last presidential election — will be wrong again.

The fact that the economy would be the deciding factor was also my feeling back in 2016, when I was one of the few who correctly predicted that Donald Trump would win the presidential election. The economy wasn’t the only reason for my prediction, but I’ll get to that in a moment.

In July the economy gained 157,000 jobs. That was below expectations. But the prevailing commentary these days is that the economy is doing well, maybe even booming. The Federal Reserve, for its part, continues to report that the economy is growing at a better than 4 percent annual rate.

There’s a curious pattern in the employment numbers that needs to be addressed. In each of the monthly reports since January, the initial report of job gains has been revised upward.

For instance, June’s job gains went from 213,000 in the first report to 248,000 in a revision. May went from 223,000 to, ultimately, 268,000; April, from 164,000 to 175,000; March, from 103,000 to 155,000; and February, from 313,000 to 324,000.

So July’s 157,000 could also be revised upward if that trend holds.

In fact, a lot of other economic reports have also been revised upward. If you believe in conspiracies, you might think that someone in the Labor Department and other government agencies are purposely underreporting job growth to make the economy look less strong.

I just think the economy will look better than it initially does after the full load of data comes in.

Was it only the weak economy in 2016 that caused Trump to beat Hillary

Clinton? No. As I said in many columns back then, Clinton has a flawed character, and many of her problems had to do with financial shenanigans.

Trump’s character was — and is — also flawed for reasons too numerous for me to get into. So the real issue in November will be whether voters look past Trump’s shortcomings because they have more money in their pockets. I think they will.

I want to say this separately so you don’t think I’ve changed my mind.

I believe that the tax cuts put in place by the Republicans early this year were wrongheaded because they will hurt the long-term health of the US. And that can be seen already in the increased amount of debt the US is accumulating — now around $1 trillion a year.

And the economic growth we are now enjoying — apparently thanks to those tax cuts — will be paid for dearly by Americans in the future.