Stacking 'em will help you pick 'em

It’s a possible AFC Championship preview Sunday night when the Chiefs visit the Patriots (NBC, 8:20 p.m.). New England has bounced back strong from surprising early losses at Detroit and Jacksonville. Kansas City hasn’t taken its foot off the gas yet with new quarterback Patrick Mahomes racing to glory.

Both are now being power-rated as “Super Bowl” caliber according to market prices. Let’s take a look at VSiN’s updated estimate of “market” power ratings. You’ve seen our estimates before if you’re a regular reader. Jonathan Von Tobel (broadcasting live for VSiN Sunday morning from Atlantic City) and I make a good-faith effort to turn each week’s point spreads into a 32-team scale.

The Patriots entered the weekend laying 3¹/2 points at home. We use a standard three points for home-field advantage. Because sharps hit the Patriots at the opening line of -3, we decided to put the Pats one point higher than the Chiefs on our scale. These teams aren’t seen by respected money as “even” if the Patriots are getting hit at the field goal.

The Jets entered the weekend at -2¹/2 vs. Indianapolis. Here, we’re on the other side of the key number. The Colts must be seen as slightly better because they get the money when the game sits right on three. Jonathan and I went with Colts 78, Jets 77. Maybe 79 and 78 is more accurate. Time will tell.

Our toughest challenge this week was figuring out where to put the Bears. Important market influences hit Chicago hard at Miami this week, lifting an opening line of -1 up to -3 by Friday afternoon. That means we have to put the Bears six points above the Dolphins on our scale. Miami isn’t chopped liver!

We went with 83 and 77 because 84 and 78 would have put the Bears too close to the top Super Bowl threats, while 82 and 76 would have stuck the Dolphins down in the bottom four of the league when they haven’t played nearly that badly.

VSiN strongly encourages you to make your own effort each week to calibrate the market. Then, compile a set of your own power ratings based on how you see the teams. Over time, you’ll either spot mistakes you’ve been making, or better, you’ll spot mistakes the market is making that you can take advantage of at the betting window.

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