Yanks losing Cole looks worse with ’Stros in the ALCS
BOSTON — On July 6, 2014, the Yankees acquired Brandon McCarthy from the Diamondbacks, struggling for a year and a half at that juncture, and convinced him to start using his cut fastball again. The right-hander excelled enough in a pinstriped half-season that the Dodgers lured him away the subsequent winter for a four-year, $48million contract.
On July 8, 2014, the Astros released Jerome Williams, the veteran right-hander, after he posted a 6.04 ERA in 26 games totaling 472/3 innings. Houston had tried to sell Williams, who recorded bad results with the Angels the two prior campaigns, on revamping his approach against hitters, only to find him unreceptive.
Sometimes pitching reclamation projects work, and sometimes they don’t. No team is perfect in this department, and every team can boast of successes.
The Astros’ success with Gerrit Cole, however, has a lot to do with their 2018 season being alive and the Yankees’ being dead.
The right-hander Cole, who chose UCLA over the Yankees when they selected him in the first round of the 2008 draft, will start ALCS Game 2 for Houston Sunday night against the Red Sox at Fenway Park. His return to the industry’s elite this season, following a twoyear dip, occurred in large part because he agreed to follow a course the Astros set out for him. The Astros won the opportunity to work with Cole last January because they offered a package that the Pirates preferred to the Yankees’.
The Pirates, who chose Cole out of UCLA with the first overall pick of the 2011 draft, had thought about trading Cole for a while. His tumble from excellent in 2015 (4.6 wins above replacement, as per BaseballReference) to good-to-very good the next two years (1.5 WAR in 2016 and 2.8 in 2017) helped end Pittsburgh’s run of three straight NL wild-card berths from 2013-15. Last winter, the Bucs finally decided — with Cole eligible for free agency after 2019 and the Pirates’ window for contention closing — the time to move on had arrived.
The Yankees, with an abundance of talented young players and a need for starting pitching, contemplated Cole at length. A strong consensus on his value didn’t emerge internally, and the difference of opinion didn’t divide along the stereotypical “stats vs. scouts” line.
Some of the Yankees’ scouts advocated for Cole, and some of their analysts did the same. And some in each camp did not share such an enthusiasm.
The Pirates learned quickly Gleyber Torres was off limits in talks with the Yankees about Cole. Among the other Yankees names discussed were Miguel Andujar, Esteven Florial, Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, Nick Solak and Tyler Wade.
Ultimately, the Yankees grew comfortable with a package centered around Frazier, though Pittsburgh wanted Andujar and Frazier. A bidding war did not emerge, as both the Yankees and Astros positioned themselves as content to move on without Cole.
On Jan. 13, the Pirates decided to take an offer from the Astros — minor league center fielder Jason Martin, pitchers Michael Feliz and Joe Musgrove and third baseman (and Westchester County product) Colin Moran — that Houston general manager Jeff Luhnow had tendered about a month earlier.
Was the Astros’ offer markedly better than a Yankees package topped by Frazier? Now 24, Frazier might possess a higher upside than anyone Pittsburgh received. Yet Frazier wound up missing the bulk of the 2018 season — and creating questions about his future — with concussion issues.
With the Astros, Cole enjoyed his finest season. By throwing fewer four-seam fastballs and more curveballs and getting notably higher spin rate on his four-seamer, as per Houston’s recommendation, he registered a career-high 276 strikeouts in 200 ¹/3 innings pitched over 32 starts.
“I think the key principle was … using a lot of the data and the information that they have to discern, … what is your strength? And what your best stuff looks like analytically,” Cole said on Saturday. “It’s not like they were reinventing the wheel. They were just showing me what I did well and then allowed me just to attack.”