POINT OF CONTACT
In homer-happy era, putting ball in play still matters in playoffs
BOSTON — Is there a sweet spot? Is there a place in which you hit plenty of homers, but do not sell out to the point in which frequent strikeouts become the “acceptable” trade-off ?
The Red Sox are at the 114th World Series representing this style. The Dodgers symbolize something more modern and Yankeesesque in which the exchange of power with punchouts is more tolerable.
That both styles are in attendance illustrates success can be found either way.
I wonder, though, if the Red Sox method becomes not only the more aesthetically pleasing variety, but a more dominant one to try to mimic. Already, there has been a phasing out of the Chris Carter/Pedro Alvarezish all-or-nothing hitter who provides limited value as a defender and a base runner.
Is the next manifestation the excising of players such as Joey Gallo types who have too many non-competitive at-bats en route to plenty of homers? Is Giancarlo Stanton in that group? Are the Red Sox in the World Series because they added a big-time producer in J.D. Martinez who limits the number of at-bats in which he is overmatched while the Yankees took on Stanton, who goes through sustained stretches of helpless hacks?
“We a re gett i ng to a greater level of sophistication,” Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi said. “As opposed to the symbiotic relationships in football or basketball, we always thought of baseball as just the hitter versus the pitcher. Is it enough to collect as much offensive talent as possible or should we be thinking about balancing hitters with different elements and skills? It is a fair question to ask and more and more we should be asking it about balancing a lineup.”
This should not diminish the importance of homers, especially when velocity and shifts, in particular, have made it harder to successfully put a ball in play. But batting average has been rendered to too low a place. A walk is better than an out, but it is not as good as a hit. A hit can send a runner first to third. It can create an error that advances runners. Getting the ball in play this time of year takes on greater import because defenders under stress are more likely to blunder.
“If you are looking to maximize runs in the season, I don’t think it matters [if you have high-homer, high- strikeout hitters],” Zaidi said. “But if you are trying to maximize consistency of an offense where you, say, score at least four runs as often as possible balance matters.”
Translation: A team that scores 10 and two runs has averaged six, but it is better to score six as frequently as possible. Feast-or-famine lineups are more likely to have greater fluctuation.
The Red Sox have minimized fluctuations. Consider that during the regular season, the Astros and Yankees pitching staffs had the lowest batting average against (.216) and OPS against (.520 and .523). Boston combined to hit .370 with a 1.152 OPS over the first two rounds to eliminate the Yankees and Astros. These are the game situations when putting the ball meaningfully into play is most valuable. The Red Sox excelled at it during the season and again so far in October.
“We live in an era that hitting .210 and 30 home runs and 70 RBIs is becoming acceptable,” Boston manager Alex Cora said. “We don’t mind strikeouts, but not in certain situations. We want them to put the ball in play. They’ve been having a very humbling approach throughout the series, staying up the middle, fouling off pitches and going the other way, putting the ball in play with two strikes.”
The Dodgers and Yankees ranked 13th and 14th, respectively, in strikeout rate at 22.6 and 22.7 percent. The 12 worst teams in that category did not make the playoffs. Four of the top five in lowest strikeout rate did reach the postseason. The Yankees hit the most homers ever at 267. The Dodgers led the NL at 235 — the third-highest NL total ever. The Dodgers’ slash line was .250/.333/.442 with a 10. 2 percent walk rate, t he Yankees were .252/.325/.439 with a 10 percent walk rate (remember also that pitchers hit more frequently for the NL team).
The Dodgers hit just .218 over the first two rounds (.190 with runners in scoring position). That has made the 13 homers they have hit in 11 games even more valuable. But they advanced mainly because of their pitching while the Yankees’ pitching failed them.
Obviously, teams wish they had it all. The Astros did last year, when they led the majors in lowest strikeout rate (19.3 percent) and homers.
“I think there is an inflection point where you have traded too much contact for power,” Zaidi said. “It is an interesting notion to think about.”