Ratings reveal winning strategy for betting Knicks

Time to update our estimated “market” power ratings for the NBA. The composite intelligence of the most influential factors still considers the Knicks to be in the bottom five, with the Nets also in the bottom quadrant.

It can be difficult to pin down the exact daily number for each NBA team because so many are dealing with injuries or using “rest” strategies that take key players off the floor. The Raptors’ Kawhi Leonard didn’t play either end of a backto-back Sunday and Monday.

What you see below is a good-faith effort by VSiN’s Jonathan Von Tobel and me to rate the current strength value of all 30 NBA teams with their usual starters:

We use recent point spreads as an anchor, factoring in three points for home-court advantage. The Knicks were just -2¹/2 at home against the Bulls on Monday night. That would suggest the market sees those teams as even on a neutral floor. We put them on the same line down near the bottom.

This league is constantly in flux. We know Kristaps Porzingis won’t be returning to the lineup for awhile. We’ll lift the Knicks when the lanky Latvian star is able to play.

VSiN suggests using these as a “base” for projecting upcoming lines, and then adjusting for that night’s personnel dynamics and fatigue issues. The Kings have taken a big leap up the ladder in recent days because they’ve kept crushing market expectations:

Upcoming opponents for the New York teams:

Knicks (74): Wednesday vs. Hawks (73), Saturday at Raptors (85 with Leonard on the floor), Sunday vs. Orlando (75), Nov. 14 at Thunder (82 with Russell Westbrook, 79 without).

The Knicks have shown a clear tendency to offer betting value when facing teams rated at 75 or lower. Even after Monday night’s non-cover, doubleovertime loss to Chicago, the Knicks are 4-1 vs. the spread against that class, but 1-41 ATS when facing teams rated above at 79 or higher. The market has underestimated the Knicks’ ability to compete with their own class and overestimated their ability to hang with contenders.

Nets (75): Friday at Nuggets (82, and many sharps give Denver four points for home court instead of three because of altitude), Saturday at Warriors (88), Monday at Timberwolves (78), Nov. 14 vs. Heat (80). It’s a brutal road trip for the Nets. Golden State is tough enough to guard when you’re not on a back-to-back! Get a free two-week trial of VSiN’s Point Spread Weekly, a digital magazine for sports bettors. Sign up at VSiN.com