Jets & Bills: Offenses that time forgot By JEFF FOGLE
Though rules changes have helped NFL offenses since the first minute of the 2018 season, the failures of both the Bills and Jets (CBS, 1 p.m.) prove teams aren’t guaranteed to move the ball and score.
A mix of inexperience at quarterback and key injuries to skill-position players has kept both teams flailing all season. Check out these league rankings in a variety of key stats (out of 32 teams):
Drive points are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. It’s a great measure for “true” offense and defense because it takes out special teams or defensive touchdowns, and cheap points from field position.
Buffalo was so helpless it posted 0-00-0-0 over a five-game stretch before getting something on the board last week in garbage time versus Chicago. The Jets exploded for 28 points when Denver was visiting on a short week in a bad body-clock game after playing a few toughies in a row. The Jets are averaging just 7.1 drive points per game otherwise. (The Chiefs lead the NFL at 24.4).
Both offenses have little idea how to move the chains to drive the field, not much of a clue about what to do when they get close to the end zone, and are
very turnover-prone by current standards.
Jets fans should be careful about assuming superiority moving forward. Analytics measures agree that Buffalo has faced one of the toughest schedules in the league, while the Jets rank near league average or worse, depending on the source.
Flip schedules, and it might be the Jets who grade out as the league’s offensive laughingstock.
It could be good news that Josh McCown will get the start for the Jets on Sunday because of a foot injury to rookie Sam Darnold. The veteran might bring enthusiasm and better execution.
Market prices had been showing disrespect for the Jets in recent weeks (as well as the Giants). Here’s a quick update of VSiN’s estimated “market” power ratings, compiled by Jonathan Von Tobel and I. We base these on settled late-week point spreads, using three points as a standard home-field advantage.
NFC: Rams 87, Saints 86, Panthers 83, Eagles 82, Packers 82, Bears 82, Vikings 81, Falcons 81, Seahawks 80, Lions 79, Cowboys 78, Redskins 77 (injuries), Bucs 77, Giants 74, 49ers 74, Cardinals 73.
AFC: Patriots 87, Chiefs 87, Steelers 84, Chargers 84, Ravens 83, Texans 81, Jaguars 79, Colts 79, Broncos 79, Bengals 78, Titans 78, Dolphins (with Osweiler) 75, Browns 74, Jets (with injuries) 73, Raiders 71, Bills (with Peterman) 69.
Monday, we’ll talk about an overlooked 88 percent point-spread trend involving the Giants in advance of their game in San Francisco.
Get a free two-week trial of VSiN’s Point Spread Weekly, a digital magazine for sports bettors. Sign up at VSiN.com.