A plan to keep king

THE MAJOR league pay system permits teams to artificially control players’ salaries in their first six or seven seasons, from minimum wage through arbitration-eligible years. By the time many reach free agency, they are nearing or beyond 30 and organizations more and more are refusing to invest long-term dollars in them. Clubs essentially deflate salaries on the front end, then refuse premium prices for declining years. Often players now are financially restrained in their 20s, shunned in their 30s. Think about Jacob deGrom: Drafted at 22, missed his age-23 season following Tommy John surgery and did not have his Rookie of the Year campaign until 26.

By Fan Graphs calculations deGrom has provided the Mets $197.7 million in value since his 2014 debut and been paid $12.6 million. In the next two years, he is likely to earn about $33 million as an arbitration-eligible player. He will not be a free agent until after his age-32 campaign and, thus, faces never being compensated for his actual value.

This is why for deGrom — and I think this would work for others with similar trajectories — I recommend pre-agency, in which he

gets treated like a free agent today in exchange for fewer years on the contract. Both sides give and take and share risk and reward.

My concept would be a five-year, $155.5 million contract: $20 million in 2019, $27.5 million in 2020 and then $36 million annually from 2021-23. The $31.1 million average would beat the annual value of all pitchers except Zack Greinke. The $36 million seasons would top the most given in any singular year to a pitcher (Max Scherzer has $35 million seasons in his contract).

DeGrom’s last three seasons (age 28-30) compare to the three (2013-15) prior to Greinke’s six-year, $206.5 million windfall — their Wins Above Replacement in those time frames: 17.7 for Greinke, 17.4 for deGrom. Greinke’s 1.66 ERA in 2015 is the only one lower than deGrom’s 1.70 in 2018 by a qualified starter in a 162-game season since Dwight Gooden’s 1.53 in 1985. Greinke was a year older in this threeyear window, but his stats were a tad better. That tad better combined with Greinke being an actual free agent is why deGrom is limited to five years and does not reach Greinke’s average value.

So why should both sides do this?

DeGrom: Despite athleticism akin to Greinke’s that suggest an ability to age well, deGrom does have that Tommy John surgery in his past and would have to risk 60-ish more starts until reaching a free-agent market that might not love him due to his age.

Both deGrom and the union would want a sixth year because, among other things, the righty would be paid through age 36, and removing artificial ceilings at 30 and 35 is growing in importance to players. DeGrom’s perks for staying at five years should be full notrade protection plus a significant vesting option year or two so that if deGrom finishes in the Cy Young top five in 2022 or ’ 23 he gets, say, $40 million in 2024 and perhaps also 2025.

But even without more bells, whistles and dollars, the former Stetson shortstop would assure generational wealth as a pitcher.

“The goal is to continue to keep an open dialogue and see where things go,” deGrom said.

Mets: In his previous job as deGrom’s a ge nt , Brodi e Van Wagenen said the Mets should either sign his client long term or trade him. In his current job as GM, Van Wagenen has promised to win now and create a championship culture.

Unless a deGrom trade brought multiple win-now youngsters, the Mets’ best 2019 playoff chance is with deGrom as their ace. As for culture, deGrom is the heir to David Wright as face of the Mets and also as a low-maintenance, high-performance star. If you are not going to reward that type as a big-market club (the Mets are bigmarket, right?) then who would they reward?

The Mets could simply arbitrate the next two years with deGrom, monitor his health/performance and then if all checks out try to sign him long-term as a free agent. But at that point exclusivity vanishes. If deGrom is still a monster, good luck to the Mets outbidding the Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, etc.

In this model, the Mets have exclusivity and would not have to pay deGrom into his late-30s. Plus, the way the contract is structured, the two lowest years coincide with the final two years on the contracts of Wright and Yoenis Cespedes before paying deGrom like a true free agent in 2021, a year in which they currently have no one signed.

Van Wagenen led a room full of Mets employees who celebrated upon deGrom’s announcement Wednesday as the NL Cy Young winner. Then, in calling him “the best pitcher in baseball for 2018,” Van Wagenen in a statement added, “I’ve always been impressed with his professional and dedicated approach on and off the field in addition to being a tremendous teammate.”

Sounds like the kind of guy you would go to pre-agency to try to secure long term.