KC & THE SUNSHINE BAND
Outlook is bright for Chiefs, Mahomes atop heap in AFC
L AS VEGAS — It was a Sunday of miracles in the NFL, with one going down in Miami and another put up in the air by Patrick Mahomes. The results added clarity to the top of the AFC playoff picture.
The team to beat no longer is coached by Bill Belichick.
“The Chiefs are certainly in the driver’s seat right now. Most likely, the AFC playoffs are going to go through Kansas City,” Westgate SuperBook director John Murray said. “I don’t think New England is that good, and I’ve said it all year.”
Is the toughest quarterback to beat no longer Tom Brady?
“Mahomes could be the face of the NFL for years,” Murray said.
At William Hill sports books in the UK, Mahomes is the new favorite (-125) to be MVP. The only other contender posted at single-digit odds is New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees (+125).
At about the same time the Patriots were stunned on the final play in a 34-33 loss in Miami, the Baltimore defense backed the Chiefs against the wall in Kansas City. Enter the escape artist.
“It took an incredible throw by the great Patrick Mahomes,” said Michael Lombardi, a VSiN host and former NFL executive.
Mahomes completed a pair of difficult fourth-down passes to keep the Chiefs alive in a 27-24 overtime victory over the Ravens that could plot the course of the AFC postseason in January. The Westgate on Monday posted the Chiefs (+120) as the AFC favorite, followed by the Patriots (3/1), Chargers (7/2), Texans (9/1) and Steelers (9/1). At William Hill, it’s the Chiefs (5/4), Patriots (3/1), Chargers (3/1), Texans (17/2) and Steelers (8/1).
Mahomes passed for 377 yards and two touchdowns to raise his league-leading numbers to 4,300 yards and 43 TDs. More important for the Chiefs (11-2) is their two-game lead over the Patriots (9-4).
A wild Week 14 sets up a bigtime showdown week in the AFC.
It kicks off Thursday night in Kansas City, where the Chiefs are 3½-point favorites over the Chargers (10-3). On Sunday in Pittsburgh, the Patriots face the Steelers, who are reeling from a three-game losing streak and wondering about the health of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, whose status prevented oddsmakers from immediately posting an opening line.
“This becomes a must-win game for the Steelers,” Murray said. “I certainly expect Roethlisberger to play.”
Roethlisberger was briefly knocked out with a rib injury Sunday as the Steelers, 10-point favorites, fell 24-21 at Oakland. Any time the Raiders win, that’s sort of a miracle, too.
While the betting public loves to play Belichick in a bounce-back spot, Lombardi said to proceed with caution.
“I don’t know how the Patriots will stop them,” Lombardi said. “The Patriots have deficiencies. This is probably one of the worst teams they have had in awhile. I don’t think they can control the game as well with their offense, and they lack speed on defense.”
Even on a day when Brady passed for 358 yards and three touchdowns, the Patriots failed to finish off the mediocre Dolphins.
“I don’t think the Patriots have anywhere near the roster talent of the Chiefs and Chargers,” Murray said. “They don’t have as many elite players as you see with the other top teams in the AFC. But what they do have is Bill Belichick. I think the Chargers are the most talented team in the league.”
Mahomes’ four-touchdown performance in Week 1 lifted the Chiefs to a 38-28 victory over the Chargers. Kansas City is 4-0 in the AFC West and the Chargers are 2-2, so no matter what happens Thursday, Mahomes will hold the upper hand as far as home-field ad- vantage in the playoffs.
But, as always, beware of Philip Rivers as a road ’dog. The Chargers quarterback is 25-11-1 against the spread in that role since 2013, including a shootout win in Pittsburgh two weeks ago.
“It will be a hard spot for Kansas City,” Lombardi said. “It’s really hard to beat a team twice in one year.
“I think Baltimore gave a blueprint on what you have to do to beat the Chiefs. After what I watched Sunday, I’ll say there are no ‘A’ teams in the NFL right now. There are ‘B’ teams.”