Diaz was safer bet in risky relief market
LAS VEGAS — Mets officials knew the team needed to acquire a closer this offseason, surveyed the free-agent market and were concerned about wear and tear on the potential candidates. Andrew Miller was on the disabled list three times, Cody Allen had regressed into his worst season, so had even the projected best of the bunch, Craig Kimbrel. The more and more they delved into a market that also includes Zach Britton, Jeurys Familia, Joakim Soria and many others, the more Mets officials worried about the combination of age, workload, injury history and potential cost of those they considered. Which is why despite taking on $63 million left on Robinson Cano’s contract, the Mets saw their trade with the Mariners as less of a gamble. Because the key piece, Edwin Diaz, doesn’t turn 25 until March and over the next four years should cost someplace — through the arbitration process — around $30 million-ish. Except if you do a bit of digging, even Diaz comes with workload concerns. The Mariners have not made the playoffs since 2001 — the longest drought among the four major sports leagues — and, among other things, pushed Diaz the past two seasons, especially in 2018, to try to get to the postseason. No pitcher appeared in more games on no-day’s rest over the past two years than Diaz at 47 — Blake Treinen at 43 was second most (thanks to the MLB Network research department for the help here). In 2018, the only pitcher to work on no-day’s rest more often than Diaz’s 26 was Sergio Romo, who was part of the Rays’ “opener” program. Diaz was tied with sidewinder Brad Ziegler, who retired after the season. Ziegler averaged a major league relief low 84.4 mph with his fastball, while Diaz clocked in at 97.3 mph. In addi- tion, Diaz pitched four times in five days seven times last year. The last was Aug. 9-12, when he pitched on four straight days and recorded a save in each against the first-place Astros as the Mariners closed within four games of first place.
Seattle, though, faded and Diaz pitched on even consecutive days just one more time in 2018.
“We did that work [about workload] not only on Diaz, but all the relievers in the market,” general manager Brodie Van Wagenen said. “We used the data to make our decision. The fact [Diaz] is 24 years old and we now control how he is used moving forward made us comfortable with the deal.”
The Mets still are pursuing a reliever from that free-agent grouping to serve as a primary setup man to Diaz, and the three names mentioned most to me are Miller, Adam Ottavino and David Robertson.
Of that group, Robertson is by far the most durable, having appeared in at least 60 games nine straight years. That could be both an alluring figure and a worrisome one. Bryan Shaw’s durability was central to him landing a three-year, $27 million pact with the Rockies, for whom he performed horribly.
Colorado spent $106 million last offseason on Shaw, Jake McGee and closer Wade Davis and none pitched well. One reason the Rockies made the playoffs, though, was Ottavino, the Brooklyn-born righty who had a 2.43 ERA and averaged 13 strikeouts per nine innings. His success has Ottavino in demand this offseason, including by the Yankees, who met with his representative Tuesday night, though no offers were exchanged.
Miller has history with Mets manager Mickey Callaway, who was his pitching coach in Cleveland. Teams are going to have to be confident the 33-year-old lefty can bounce back physically. His allure — besides his stuff when healthy — is that Miller has the reputation as one of the best teammates in the sport.
The Mets believe Diaz, despite his recent workloads, provides less risk than any of the relievers they are considering to be his setup man. Plus, the Mets think that by landing Diaz so early in the offseason, they have the key pen piece they needed and can therefore be more patient as they try to decide which risky bet to make on a setup man.