Why Patriots aren't bigger underdogs
Last time, we talked about the importance of third-down conversions entering conference championship weekend in our preview of Rams-Saints. That category could loom just as large in Sunday’s AFC Championship game when the Patriots visit the Chiefs (CBS, 6:40 p.m.)
Though, this time, it’s the underdog with the much more experienced quarterback … and the offense that won the category in a regular-season meeting.
When New England beat Kansas City, 43-40, on Oct. 15, it won third downs, 54 percent to 40, and turnovers, 2-1, because inexperienced Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes had to go to a higherrisk approach to keep up with Tom Brady.
And, though Kansas City owned the third-down category in a 31-13 playoff win over Indianapolis last week, that was because of great defense. The Chiefs were just 4-of-14 themselves, for a disappointing 29 percent. That was part of why its offense died in the second half of what could have been a much higher margin of victory.
The talented Mahomes has a better grasp of risk-reward than he did three months ago. But, he will likely have to get the best of Brady in possession-related stats for Kansas City to cover Sunday’s point spread.
The line has been painted Kansas City -3 throughout the week. This is already a very heavily bet game, and will be up until kickoff. The public typically likes home favorites at cheap prices in championship games. It’s easy to remember the best of Kansas City’s performances, some sluggish New England road games, and pencil in an easy Chiefs win.
Let’s get more context on New England’s third-down performances in those road losses that have been discussed so much this week. We’ll leave out the “Miami miracle” that isn’t likely to have predictive value. Here are the Pats’ third-down percentages in road losses of a touchdown or more: Jaguars 71 percent, Patriots 33 Lions 50, Patriots 22 Titans 42, Patriots 20 Steelers 44, Patriots 20 It’s pretty clear. New England will get crushed by Kansas City if it can’t move the chains. But, their regular-season win proves the Patriots can make it two in a row over the Chiefs if they can keep Brady on the field and Mahomes off.
Why is the point spread sitting at 3 instead of rising, given discussion about the Patriots being ill-equipped to win a big road game? First, the public has always loved betting on Brady. Getting him as an underdog appeals to many. Second, the weather!
You likely know cold temperatures are in the forecast. The game will be played in “New England winter weather,” and the visiting quarterback has established he can move the ball in such conditions. Mahomes played his high school and college ball in Texas. He had flashes of brilliance in the first half against the illprepared Colts, but couldn’t get much going after.