PARTY LIKE IT'S 2009
Ten years later, bettors see rematch with Yanks if Phillies can land star
LAS VEGAS — If the Phillies hook a big one on their free-agency fishing trip, whether it’s Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, Philadelphia could become the secondhottest ticket on the MLB futures market.
In terms of popularity with the betting public, no team will surpass the Yankees. Even without Harper or Machado, the Yankees are tagged with baseball’s highest win total and continue to attract World Series action at a runaway rate.
As a long, strange offseason merges with the start of spring training this week, Harper and Machado remain unsigned. It’s baseball’s version of “The Bachelor” minus roses and paradise. When that finally changes, it seems neither star will end up in pinstripes and at least one will land in Philadelphia.
“It’s wild. Everybody is waiting on those two guys,” William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said.
Yet some oddsmakers are done with the waiting game. CG Technology and Caesars sports books have posted regular-season win totals. The Westgate Super-Book will post season wins on Sunday, with William Hill set to follow in two to three weeks.
At the Westgate, the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros share the World Series fa- vorite’s role at 6/1 odds, but the Yankees have drawn more than double the money of Boston and Houston combined. The Phillies are lurking in a pack of contenders at 14/1.
“The Yankees are the sexy team,” Westgate book manager Ed Salmons said. “But I know there are a lot of people looking to bet the Phillies.
“Most people don’t realize the Phillies have a ton of money, they are back on the upswing and this is the year they are targeting. It sounds like Harper is going to the Phillies and he’s trying everything not to go. I think Machado wants to go to the Yankees or Phillies and he doesn’t want to go to the White Sox. That’s just my impression, and it’s guesswork at this point.”
CG Technology posted the Yankees atop the win totals board at 97, followed by the Red Sox and Astros (each at 96½), Dodgers (94½) and Cubs (90½). The Phillies, the 11th team listed at 86 wins, could move up a few spots if they hook Harper or Machado.
What is a superstar worth to a team’s win total?
“It might be two or three wins,” Bogdanovich said. “It’s a tough question. In baseball, how much of an impact would one player make over 162 games? I don’t even know how to quantify it. A lot depends on where the player goes and what that team specifically needed. Machado being a shortstop is critical, but Harper being an outfielder not so much.”
Philadelphia’s recent trade with Miami for catcher J.T. Realmuto is already enough to put the Phillies over the top in the National League, said VSiN analyst Josh Towers. A team on the rise in 2018 added shortstop Jean Segura, outfielder Andrew McCutchen and reliever David Robertson before dealing for arguably the best catcher in the majors.
“To me, Realmuto is the difference-maker,” said Towers, a pitcher who spent parts of eight seasons in the majors (2001-09) with the Orioles, Blue Jays and Yankees. “I do think the Phillies are the team to beat in the NL. What if they get Bryce? Their outfield gets better. The NL East is sick. The Mets, Braves and Nationals are improved.”
The Mets, with a win total of 84½, traded for second baseman Robinson Cano and closer Edwin Diaz. Atlanta added former MVP third baseman Josh Donaldson. Washington, which appears to be losing Harper, signed lefty starter Patrick Corbin to boost a powerful rotation.
The Nationals have a win total of 88½ without Harper, and it would not change much with him. The White Sox (76) would get more of an adjustment by adding Harper or Machado.
The AL East is essentially a two-horse race. Towers said the Yankees look better out of the gate after adding Adam Ottavino to their dominant bullpen, acquiring lefty starter James Paxton and signing veteran infielders DJ LeMahieu and Troy Tulowitzki.
“The Yankees got so much better,” Towers said. “That’s the team to beat in the American League.”
This time last year, the Red Sox made a pivotal move by signing slugger J.D. Martinez. It was a World Serieswinning move. But Boston has not re-signed closer Craig Kimbrel, and maybe the door is cracked open a bit wider for the Yankees.
“The Red Sox look like a regression team, an older team, this year,” Salmons said. “The Yankees are sexy because they have the home-run hitters and they went out and signed Paxton. The Yankees are taking a lot of money at 6/1, which to me is crazy.
“When you know the path through the playoffs with Boston and Houston, it’s hard to perceive value at 6/1 odds. In that division, the Yankees could be the wild card again and it’s a one-game playoff. I could argue 10/1 is good value, but it’s not 10/1.”