Oust Maduro!
Only an armed insurgency can save Venezuela
THE collapse of Venezuela’s electrical grid this month triggered a struggle for power — literally, electricity — by narco-dictator Nicolás Maduro and sent 30 million people scrambling for food and water.
The blackouts underscored the gravity of Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis and the threat Maduro poses to regional stability, not to mention his own people. Which is why the United States needs a tougher game plan for ousting him.
Since January, President Trump’s national-security team has helped rally Western support for Juan Guaidó, the legitimate interim president elected by the democratic National Assembly. The Treasury Department has sanctioned dozens of Maduro cronies and cut off American payments for Venezuelan oil. The March 8 indictment of Tareck El Aissami, a key Maduro henchman with ties to Hezbollah, bolstered Trump’s gettough strategy.
Even so, Maduro hasn’t budged. Cuba, Russia and China have helped him hold on. And military commanders have rebuffed Guaidó’s order that they oust Maduro in exchange for amnesty. This stalemate could drag on for months, with critical infrastructure on life support.
Venezuelans rely on the hydroelectric turbines at the remote Guri Dam for about 80 percent of their electricity. The rest comes from thermal power plants around major cities.
On March 7, a brush fire near the transmission lines leading from the Guri facility tripped the breakers, causing a nationwide blackout. Reckless managers trying to reboot the system did more permanent damage to the decrepit grid. As a result, Venezuelans are surviving with about half of the power they need from a teetering system.
The entire population is at risk. During recurring blackouts, hospitals are hardest hit, and power generators, food delivery trucks and cars can’t be refueled without electric pumps. Clean water can’t be pumped into supply lines or up to high-rise apartments. Already one of the world’s most dangerous cities, Caracas may soon be- come hell on earth for its 3 million residents.
As a short-term fix, the bankrupt regime will have to find the funds and fuel to boost production from thermal power plants that now are operating at less than 10 percent capacity. Repairing the transmission and distribution system carrying power from Guri will take more money, time and competent engineers. Even before the massive blackout, Maduro’s ruinous policies created insecurity and hunger at home, driving several million refugees into neighboring countries. The longer Maduro stays in power, the more the outflow of refugees will intensify.
Washington must adopt a more urgent strategy, recognizing that Maduro will have to be forced from power.
Guaidó has questioned the use of force, particularly because key Latin American nations, with the tacit support of US diplomats, have ruled out foreign intervention. But surely Venezuelans themselves have the right to take up arms to end the misery and death caused by a criminal Marxist dictatorship.
Guaidó should call upon citizen-soldiers to defend themselves, and he should give them the means to do so. This includes engaging the armed forces, most of whose members don’t support Maduro. But Guaidó should stop trying to coax Maduro’s commanders to oust him; narco-generals are the last people interested in doing the right thing.
Instead, he should seek out honest officers, beginning with respected retired generals who will reach out personally to captains, majors and lieutenants with good reputations to recruit a corps of new leaders, who, in turn, will command the armed forces and citizen-soldiers to depose the tyrant and save lives. Americans can help. Venezuela’s constitution explicitly allows foreign military missions. That provision would grant legal legitimacy to a multinational force of Venezuelan citizen-soldiers and foreign troops to help keep the peace. Without being drawn into a prolonged campaign, US forces could be deployed to areas liberated by Venezuelans, to detain regime leaders who have been indicted in US courts. Prosecutors can do their part by seeking or unsealing indictments against them; hefty rewards would make it hard for them to hide.
By ordering the Treasury Department to release frozen funds belonging to Venezuela to support armed struggle, Trump can take credit for helping liberate Venezuela. But it would be the Venezuelan people who will bear the burden and pay the price.
Roger Noriega, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, served as US ambassador to the Organization of American States and as assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs under President George W. Bush.