Alarm Bells

Cash in fantasy equity now on Pirate’s hot start

WHETHER you’re investing in property, stock, wine, toys, vinyl records or baseball cards, the goal is always to buy at a low price and sell for as much as you can get. The same principle is used for fantasy baseball.

If you draft someone in the late rounds or pick someone up early in the season, and they start to exceed expectations, you have to do everything you can to get the most in return for your i nvestment. You can hold on and hope it continues to produce, or you can t rade t hem in for something you may need or want more. Either way, you must act fast because if production starts to fade, you could find yourself with a player who has little to no value taking up roster space.

Pittsburgh’s Josh Bell is a really hot commodity right now. Though he had a solid opening month of the season (.286, 6 HRs, 21 RBIs, .955 OPS), he has taken it to another level this month — hitting .383 with six homers, 18 RBIs and a 1.223 OPS over his first 15 games. He had a hit in all but one of those games.

Bell, a longtime Roto Rage favorite, entered Saturday tied for 12th in the majors in homers (12), fourth in RBIs (39), eighth in doubles (14), 13th in triples (two) and 30th in runs scored (27), and was third in slugging percentage (.665) and fifth in OPS (1.056).

This is the type of season many thought Bell was capable of after hitting .255 with 26 homers, 90 RBIs and a .800 OPS in 2017. That is a big reason why

last year was such a letdown.

Bell is making more hard contact than ever, hitting fewer groundballs and playing like someone who should h ave been one of the top f ive f i rst basemen drafted instead of the guy who was barely an afterthought and taken after the likes of Jake Bauers and C.J. Cron.

Do you sense the “but” coming? Because here it comes ... But ... here are the some red flags: Bell is a career .267 hitter, so the .323 average he took into Saturday is not going to last forever — not with a .361 BaBIP (ranked 20th in the majors). Bell has a high home-run-to-fly-ball rate (27.3 percent), which ranks 13th in the majors and is bound to regress. Even in 2017, his HR/FB was 19.1 percent. Though Bell’s strikeout percentage ( 22.9) is far from the worst in the league, it is well above his career average (18.3) and by far the worst of his career by more than four percentage points. He is swinging and missing more and making slightly less contact, and though his walk rate is stellar (10.3 percent), it is still the lowest mark of his career.

Bell seems to have taken a huge step, but he should not be thought of or treated like a fantasy superstar. It is far too early for that. His numbers are going to regress, but he should remain a valuable asset.

With that said, there are plenty of fantasy owners likely interested in Bell’s services. His value is not going to get much higher, and since he was more than likely drafted (or picked up) as a backup or spare part, you can try to turn him into a pitcher, like Robbie Ray or Patrick Corbin, or a position player with upside, like Nick Senzel or a reliable option, albeit limited because of his DH-only eligibility, like Khris Davis. You have options and a desirable piece to offer, which is why you need to strike while the iron is scorching. You certainly can hold onto Bell and hope this is the new norm, but you run the risk of his numbers falling and his value taking a hit.

Roto Rage suggests taking advantage of this asset and cashing in to help set up a brighter f uture for your team.