Deal for Greinke vaults Astros into top spot in futures odds
L AS VEGAS — Wednesday’s MLB trade deadline has come and gone but its repercussions very well could continue to be felt deep into October.
The blockbuster that fans, media, and not to mention bettors and bookmakers, were waiting for came late that afternoon as the AL-leading Astros acquired another top-end starter in Zack Greinke from the Diamondbacks. The addition of Greinke gives the Astros three of the top five MLB leaders in WHIP (Walks and hits per nine innings): 1. Justin Verlander 0.81, 2. Zack Greinke 0.94, 5. Gerrit Cole 1.00. That’s a scary starting rotation to face in the postseason.
While the Astros already were one of the shorter prices on the board, the Greinke trade, along with the acquisition of Aaron Sanchez and Joe Biagini from the Blue Jays to bolster middle relief, was enough to move them to either co-favorites or outright favorites to win the World Series. Westgate Superbook USA currently has Houston at 2/1 and Caesars currently lists the Astros and the Dodgers as 11/4 (+275) co-favorites. William Hill Sportsbook adjusted the Astros down from 7/2 to 5/2, ahead of the Dodgers.
Like many other shops, PointsBet USA attempted to get out ahead of the market by adjusting the Astros down from 17/5 (+340) to 3/1.
“The adjustment clearly wasn’t significant enough as we took a relatively significant wager at 3/1 which led to a subsequent move to 12/5 (+240), which is where we currently sit,” said Matthew Chaprales, director of content for PointsBet USA. The Dodgers, who were relatively quiet at the deadline, are just behind at 14/5 (+280) and just north of even money to win the NL pennant. Most books have kept the Dodgers the same in terms of odds, largely due to the largest divisional lead in all of baseball, but also due to potential liabilities.
The chasers in the NL were way more active in the market including the Braves, Nationals, Cubs and Brewers. The Braves (8/1 to win the World Series at PointsBet, 10/1 at William Hill) and the Nationals (25/1 at PointsBet, 22/1 at William Hill) primarily sought out reinforcements for shaky bullpens. Meanwhile, the Cubs (16/1 at PointsBet, 15/1 at William Hill) focused on adding an impact bat, particularly against left-handed pitching.
Enter Nick Castellanos, who could be a big-time help in terms of hitting lefties as he has a slash line of .347 batting average/.415 on-base percentage/.611 slugging percentage against lefties this season. The Cubs likely will continue to attract money in the futures markets as they are always a popular choice amongst casual bettors. Meanwhile, the Brewers (33/1 at PointsBet, 20/1 at William Hill) attempted to add arms to an already highly used bullpen by acquiring lefty Drew Pomeranz from San Francisco and Jacob Faria from Tampa Bay.
Back to the AL, the Yankees were bumped up to 5/1 at PointsBet and 9/2 at William Hill. The usually active pinstripes were not able to pull the trigger on a deal for another starter. Considering they have the highest ERA of any divisional leader in MLB, they are going to need to stretch an already taxed bullpen and pray for the returns of Luis Severino and Dellin Betances. One of their current top three starters (Masahiro Tanaka 4.78 ERA, J.A. Happ 5.19 ERA, James Paxton 4.72 ERA) will also have to find better form.
The saving grace for the Yankees is that their two main competitors in the AL East are stuck in a bit of purgatory right now. Boston and Tampa Bay are good enough to stay in the wild-card race but probably not good enough to make up as much ground as they need to catch the Yankees. The Red Sox were fairly inactive at the deadline and have seen their odds lengthened from 18/1 to 25/1 at William Hill.
It is surprising that the team in the AL East that was most aggressive was Tampa Bay. Granted, the moves the Rays made weren’t earth-shattering, but they used a pitching-rich system to acquire Jesus Aguilar (a needed power bat), Eric Sogard (a good utility player), and Nick Anderson (a swingand-miss pitcher in the bullpen). William Hill shortened the Rays from 35/1 to 30/1.
“The adjustments we made were really nothing major,” said Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading at William Hill. “By and large our liabilities are in good shape.”
The Giants (60/1) and the A’s (28/1) are actually the largest World Series liabilities at William Hill and that shows that some value bettors are willing to take longer shots with hot teams during the dog days of summer.
In a season when home runs are being hit at a record rate, the two World Series favorites, the Astros and Dodgers, are clearly subscribing to a tried and true classic baseball theory that good pitching will always beat good hitting in the playoffs.