Beware of Bauer
Mercurial starter may struggle with Reds
T HERE’S A LOT to like about Trevor Bauer.
He throws hard (94-95 mph), his strikeout percentage consistently hovers around 25 percent, and he has compiled 11 wins or more in every season since 2015 while in Cleveland.
There should be even more to like after being dealt to the Reds, joining a solid rotation led by Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray and moving to the NL, where he will face pitchers instead of potentially dangerous designated hitters. But Roto Rage isn’t sold the move will be all sunshine and rainbows for the mercurial starter.
Bauer entered Saturday’s start having issued 63 walks, the most in the majors and more than he allowed in 2018 (57). This isn’t surprising considering his career walk rate hovers around 10 percent.
Bauer has become susceptible to the long ball, allowing 22 over his first 24 starts after allowing just nine last year. He allowed 20 or more from 2015-17. This is concerning, as Great American Ball Park is a homer-friendly stadium, a park where he is 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and three homers allowed in three starts.
Bauer showed us what he was capable of as an All-Star in 2018, a career year in which he went 12-6 with a 2.21 ERA and 221 strikeouts. Outside of that one season, though, it’s been a lot of mixed results. He was 47-41 with a 4.36 ERA from 2012-17, and he was 9-8 with a 3.79 ERA in his first 24 starts for the Indians this season. Even his FIP (4.16) and xFIP (4.28) indicate he has gotten lucky this year. Maybe this is whom he truly is: a pitcher capable of greatness, but one who always will allow social media fodder, throwing balls over the centerfield wall in a fit of rage or drones interfere with his talent.
Here’s a look at how being traded will affect the fantasy value of other pitchers:
Zack Greinke, Astros
Barely touches 90 mph, but he has the third-lowest walks per nine (1.3) and 11th-best ERA (2.90), has already picked up 10 wins and strikes out 24 percent of batters. He also is now the No. 3 pitcher behind Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole in a pitcher-friendly park in front of a stacked lineup.
Aaron Sanchez, Astros
Landing in Houston could be t he best thing to happen to Sanchez, who has not won since April 27 (0-13, 7.49 ERA in his past 17 starts) and owns the worst ERA and walks per nine. He’s only 27 and is on a team that gets the most out of its pitchers. This is a team that helped turn Charlie Morton from a middling starter (46-71, 4.54 ERA, 6.3 K/9 from 2008-16) into one of the best fantasy options (41-13, 3.18 ERA, 10.6 K/9). He’s worth keeping an eye on.
Marcus Stroman, Mets
Good news: The first-time AllStar returns to his native Long Island to pitch in a pitcher-friendly park for a suddenly hot team with a killer rotation, and he historically has been a strong secondhalf pitcher (20-18, 3.25 ERA, 1.23 WHIP). Potentially bad news: He’s not pitching for the team he wanted to (Yankees), is a groundball pitcher who doesn’t have a great defense behind him, and his FIP indicates there could be a downturn in that 2.96 ERA. Zac Gallen, D’backs The 23-year-old rookie has not allowed more than two earned runs in six of his first seven big-league starts, and is now in Arizona, where he has a better chance of picking up wins. Roto Rage believes Gallen is a must-own pitcher, and he’s available in more than 80 percent of ESPN leagues.