HOLD ON TIGHT
New formula gives TEs only moderate boost
In the second of a six-part fantasy draft preview series leading up the NFL season, Fantasy Insanity discusses the war-room game plan for tight ends in the draft. Next week: quarterbacks.
E VERYONE has a personal enemy. Someone you don’t get along with, whom you don’t treat with the same respect as your family and friends. Maybe they’re ugly or mean or they don’t have proper respect for Batman. For the Fantasy Madman, we have long held such angst against fantasy tight ends.
We didn’t dislike them necessarily, we just didn’t treat them as nicely as other fantasy players and pundits. We routinely have ranked t hem well below most in the fantasy industry. Last season, according to our Draft Value Quotient (DVQ), our top tight end ranked in the 40s overall. Considering the top tight ends were getting drafted in the second and third rounds, this was far below the standard.
This year, we decided we wanted to be nicer, maybe make friends with some tight ends. So we tweaked our methodology to try to better represent the performance of top players at each position compared to their replacement-level alternative — the idea being, the top tight ends score a lot more than the replacement level compared to other positions, so they would get a boost. Let’s just say, we have a newfound friendship. But we still are unlikely to exchange Christmas cards. Travis Kelce this season ranks as our 34th player overall, factoring in the full availability of Tyreek Hill. Some might continue to consider this disrespect, considering he frequently is drafted in the late first or early second round. But, compared to last season, Kelce ranked 27th overall in PPR leagues. That puts him in comfortable proximity.
Because he is drafted well ahead of his ranking, and quite short of his DVQ value (which compares projected points to pick value), we do not recommend chasing Kelce unless he slips to the cusp of the third round in 12-team leagues. Likewise, Zach Ertz (38th) or George Kittle (56th) at draft positions close to their overall rankings.
Chances are, there are players, in the range these tight ends will be picked, whose DVQ is closer to value than those tight ends. So despite the bump tight ends have received in our newest formula, it isn’t enough to justify their draft positions. Hey, we’ll be your pals, but we’re not going to let you take advantage of us.
What it does do is put some of the mid-round, high-upside options in a better target zone. Evan Engram is ranked 86th overall, and his DVQ is well below that (182.9). But there is a logjam of players in the 160-192 range according to the DVQ — it starts with players ranked in the 40s.
That’s when we begin to consider targeting Engram or O.J. Howard, or even Vance McDonald. We would love Kittle in this range, but he is unlikely to drop that far. Granted, we’re not going to bypass quality running backs or wide receivers at this point.
If we miss on our three primary targets, we aim for Hunter Henry shortly thereafterafter. Deeper, we targetget David Njoku, then Austin Hooper or TTrey Burton. We wouwould settle for Chris HerHerndon or Delanienie Walker even later. Ideally, we want two, because we want insinsurance for injury and options to platoon based on matchups.
So though the Madman is kkinder to tight ends in our nenewest DVQ model, it is a modestest aadjustment that doesn’t overhaulhaul our longheld practice of waitwaiting to draft tight ends.