Jets can thrive ... if they survive
In our last report, we looked at 2019 schedule challenges for the Giants from a market perspective using projected regular-season win totals for their opponents. Today, we’ll do the same thing for the Jets.
The Jets are currently projected to win 7¹/2 games according to William Hill. Though that’s below .500 (8-8), it’s within arm’s reach of wild-card contention if a few things break the right way.
Here are expectations for their opponents from that same sportsbook. We’ll start with the road slate in schedule order:
Jets’ road opponents: Patriots (11¹/2), Eagles (10), Jaguars (7¹/2), Dolphins (5), Redskins (6¹/2), Bengals (6), Ravens (8¹/2), Bills (7).
A brutal start, but certainly manageable after facing two recent Super Bowl champions. It’s dicey projecting point spreads far in advance in the NFL because injuries are so common. But for now, the Jets won’t be prohibitive underdogs in their final six road games — and might even be laying small point spreads if projected alsorans fall on hard times.
Jets’ home opponents: Bills (7), Browns (9), Cowboys (9), Patriots (11¹/2), Giants (6), Raiders (6), Dolphins (5), Steelers (9).
Much tougher here, though there are some potentially great attractions if you’re a ticket holder. Four opponents are expected to reach or contend for the playoffs. Cleveland has been a hot bet to go deep in 2019 with roster improvements and growing enthusiasm.
The Jets are currently expected to be slight favorites over the Bills, Giants, Raiders and Dolphins. They can’t be expected to sweep their coin flips. Winning three of four would put them in position to win “Over” bets on their win total. (Don’t forget the Giants game is at a neutral field, so no home-field advantage will be reflected in the line.)
To this point, there are reasons for optimism. Let’s see how the games fall chronologically:
Jets schedule in order: vs. Bills (7), vs. Browns (9), at Patriots (11¹/2), at Eagles (10), vs. Cowboys (9), vs. Patriots (11¹/2), at Jaguars (7¹/2), at Dolphins (5), vs. Giants (6), at Redskins (6¹/2), vs. Raiders (6), at Bengals (6), vs. Dolphins (5), at Ravens (8¹/2), vs. Steelers (9), at Bills (7).
Wow. A brutal first six games followed by a much easier pathway. The Jets could improve from last year in true quality, but sit at 1-5 if they can’t knock off one of the projected elites.
The good news: If the Jets shine early, they can ride that all the way to a possible winning record against seven straight opponents currently projected to finish below .500.
That’s a volatile arrangement. Will that early gauntlet kill enthusiasm and put too many Jets on the injured list? An implosion could lead to another disappointing failure. The Jets have finished 4-12 or 5-11 in four of the past five seasons. Surviving the first six games with a 2-4 or 3-3 record would build a battle-tested roster ready to bully non-contenders for two months straight.
The stage is at least set for something special if the Jets can avoid that early trap door.
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