A GUT CHECK
Callaway: 85% of moves go against the analytics
ATLANTA — Numbers won’t rule Mickey Callaway’s world.
Even as the Mets try to become a more analytically driven organization, the manager admitted Thursday that most of his decisions are based on factors outside the numerical realm.
“I bet 85 percent of our decisions go against the analytics,” Callaway said before the Mets defeated the Braves, 10-8, at SunTrust Park. “And that is how it’s always going to be, because that is just on paper. It doesn’t take into account the person is a human being, how he performs in these big spots, all these things a manager looks at.
“You’re going against analytics most of the time, but I think there is something to be said when all things are equal and you are taking all these things into consideration and the decision still feels very equal, let’s lean on what does the matchup look like? What does the projection that our analytics department is coming up with, what does it look like, and if it’s a lot of points one way or the other I think that is something to take into consideration to try to make a better decision.”
Callaway’s comments about analytics came in response to a questioni aboutb the challenges he faces in managing a bullpen in which defined roles have largely disappeared. On Wednesday, he used Seth Lugo in the seventh inning — removing Steven Matz, who had retired 14 straight batters and thrown only 79 pitches — and watched the right-hander surrender five runs. “It can be challenging,” Callaway said. “There is a reason a lot of teams are going on analytics, because it says, ‘This guy for this spot, this guy for that spot.’ That doesn’t always work, we all know that. “You have to understand what is going on with a player lately. That has to come into play, so it does add a little bit of a dynamic if certain struggles are there, but that is what you have to deal with, so we’ll continue to try to make the best decisions we possibly can and hopefully we get performance from it.” Lugo, who had held opponents hitless over 35 at-bats before Anthony Rendon homered against him last weekend, said he checked with the analytics staff after Wednesday’s game, and many of his suspicions were confirmed: He was more a casualty of bad luck with well-placed balls by the Braves than poor pitches.