IRISH UNDER BOOK VALUE
10 wins tough ask for Notre Dame, even with returning QB
L AS VEGAS — Entering his 10th season at Notre Dame, Brian Kelly is coaching another team capable of winning 10 games. Oddsmakers have drawn the line just below that number, and oddsmakers are not fools who give away money.
This is not a simple question: Over or under 9½ wins for the Fighting Irish?
Kelly has won 10 or more games in three of the past four seasons — marking Notre Dame’s most successful stretch since Lou Holtz was coach in the early 1990s — and the other season (4-8 in 2016) was closer to rock bottom than Knute Rockne.
This Irish team will be good, though not as good as last year’s 12-1 team that Clemson quietly buried 30-3 in a College Football Playoff semifinal. The talent level Kelly is working with this year is not on a level with Alabama, Clemson or a few other elite teams, so forget a playoff repeat.
Kelly is a sharp game-planner. For evidence, look at how he took apart Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh, who appeared lost and unprepared in the first half of last year’s opener. With junior quarterback Ian Book returning along with four starters on the line, Kelly will field another strong offense. But Book is conservative and efficient, not exactly exciting, and most of Notre Dame’s top linemen, running backs and receivers from the past two years are on NFL rosters. The defense returns six starters after allowing an impressive 18.2 points per game.
Expect the Irish to lose at least twice on the road, as 11½-point underdogs at Georgia on Sept. 21 and as seven-point ’dogs at Michigan on Oct. 26. A dramatic decision for the regular-season win total might come down to late November, when Notre Dame is a sixpoint favorite at Stanford, according to the lookahead line at the Westgate SuperBook.
The Irish open as 20½-point favorites at Louisville and will be favored in all seven home games, yet Virginia, Virginia Tech and USC are not automatic home wins. The schedule is soft enough for Kelly to get to 9-3, with the ceiling being 10-2, and it would take some luck to reach 10. It’s seldom wise to bet on a best-case scenario and over a high total.
Notre Dame is most likely a nine-win team, so play under 9½ (-150) at Circa Sports in Las Vegas. Here are three more win totals to watch (William Hill lines):
Iowa (Under 7½, +115)
Senior quarterback Nathan Stanley had it good last year. That was obvious when Hawkeyes tight ends T.J. Hockenson (No. 8, Detroit) and Noah Fant (No. 20, Denver) went in the first round of the NFL Draft. Stanley passed for 26 touchdowns, with half of those going to his star tight ends. It’s tough to replace those big-time targets, and it’s not going to be easy for coach Kirk Ferentz to rebuild a defense that lost seven starters. Iowa finished the regular season 8-4 while losing three conference games by six points or fewer.
Ferentz enters his 21st year facing more personnel questions than usual, and a few younger coaching stars — Nebraska’s Scott Frost, Purdue’s Jeff Brohm and Minnesota’s P.J. Fleck — are turning the Big Ten West into a dogfight top to bottom. The Hawkeyes draw a rigorous league road schedule with games at Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Nebraska. With only 10 returning starters, winning eight games is too much to ask.
UCLA (Over 6, -140)
In four years at Oregon, Chip Kelly finished with a record of 46-7. He was no wizard in his first year in Westwood, going 3-9. There have been signs of unrest within the program, but winning would solve that, and this team is ready to win with 19 returning starters. Sophomore quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a good fit for Kelly’s system. Joshua Kelley, who rushed for 1,243 yards and 12 TDs as a junior, is a punishing runner who ripped off 289 yards in a victory over USC. The Bruins’ offense averaged 17 points in last season’s first four games, compared to 31.3 points per game in the final four, and that type of improvement was anticipated under Kelly.
The Bruins avoid North division favorites Washington and Oregon on the schedule, so bet on Kelly at least getting to 6-6 with a good shot at seven wins.
Washington (Over 9½, +100)
Jacob Eason, once targeted to be Georgia’s quarterback of the future, has come home to star for the Huskies. The 6-foot-6 Eason’s right arm is a rifle, and he throws with accuracy on the run. The Huskies’ top three wideouts — Aaron Fuller, Andre Baccellia and Ty Jones — return along with top tight end Hunter Bryant. There is depth at running back and experience on the offensive line, so Washington’s firepower should increase even after the departure of QB Jake Browning. Cynics will cite only two returning starters on defense, but coach Chris Petersen pulled in another stellar recruiting class highlighted by stud defensive linemen.
The offense could be great, the defense will mature and the schedule breaks just right for the Huskies. The other Pac-12 powers — USC, Oregon, Utah and Washington State — pay visits to Seattle. Washington might go off as the favorite in all 12 games. The Huskies won nine, 10 and 11 regular-season games the past three years. Bet on the Pac-12’s best coach winning 10 or more.