It’s Bibi, Not His Policies, at Risk

LEFT or right? War or diplomacy? Socialism or free-market economy? Tuesday’s election here is about none of these. It’s about Bibi. Israel’s politics nowadays seem almost as crazy as Britain’s, but unlike the mother of all parliaments, which can’t sort out London’s relation with Brussels, the Knesset’s biggest issue was merely to decide whether to keep or oust Benjamin Netanyahu — the leader who this summer became the country’s longest-serving prime minister. Its inability to settle that triggered a new election.

As much as 40 percent of Israel’s electorate adore Netanyahu, or at least his policy record: They credit him with tremendously boosting the economy, steering clear of major wars and forming new relations with countries they never could have dreamed of befriending. A roughly similar number see Netanayahu as a criminal or at least believe he’s been in power too long, whether they like his accomplishments or not.

The parties representing minorities like the Arabs, the ultra-Orthodox and others will be critical in determining if the next leader will be Bibi or Benny Gantz, the

leader of the Blue-White party, so named after the Israeli flag. Gantz promises little to no change on issues like defense, diplomacy or economics. Indeed, several Blue-White leaders are even more hawkish on security than Netanyahu.

Last week, the European Union, the United Nations and veterans of the Obama administration unanimously condemned Bibi’s announced intention to annex the Jordan Valley, predicting it would end all hope for peace. But as far as most Israelis are concerned, hanging on to that area is non-controversial. It’s a natural barrier separating Israel’s eastern flank from a turbulent Arab world, where hatred of the Jewish state is still prevalent.

Gantz favors staying there, while — as his supporters note — Bibi all but accepted a John Kerry-led peace plan that would have given it away. The only cabinet member who opposed it at the time was Netanyahu’s thendefense minister, Moshe “Bogie” Yaalon, who has since parted ways with Netanyahu and is now a top Blue- White candidate.

For the second time this year, and on issue after issue, most of the Israeli electorate is divided over who should lead them, but much less on how and what policies that leader should adopt.

Netanayahu got the nod in the last round, five months ago. But he failed to secure support from a majority of the Knesset’s 120 members. Avigdor Lieberman, a former defense and foreign minister, refused to join with his former party, Likud, arguing that Bibi has made too many concessions to the country’s ultra-Orthodox.

Polls predict Lieberman’s party, Israel Beiteinu, will almost double its five Knesset seats, remaining smaller than Gantz’s and Bibi’s, but an Israeli friend insists, it’ll be “Lieberman for prime minister.” That’s unlikely, but the wily Moldovan-born politician is widely predicted to become post-election kingmaker.

Still, Netanyahu has a small advantage. “This time, for whatever reason, the Orthodox parties are in Bibi’s pocket,” says veteran political analyst Hanan Krystal. So are the parties to Bibi’s right.

A party representing the country’s Arab citizens, some 20 percent of the population, can also make a key difference. Arab politicians are no fans of Gantz, but after Netanyahu pushed a law declaring Israel primarily a Jewish state, “they may, just this one time, support Gantz,” who, for them, is not as bad as Bibi, says Krystal.

In that case, and unless Netanyahu succeeds in luring Lieberman into joining forces with Likud again despite recent bad blood, Gantz wins, while Netanayahu loses immunity from prosecution and perhaps any hope of a political comeback.

Another big question: Some Likud members despise Bibi and fear he’ll be forced to stand trial. Will they defect to form a unity government headed by Gantz? That this seems even plausible owes mostly to the fact that ideological differences between Israel’s parties have increasingly narrowed in past years.

Netanyahu may yet pull a rabbit out of his hat again, but non-Israelis praying for Bibi’s ouster should take note: Even if he loses Tuesday, Israel’s polices aren’t likely to change much. If he is finally shown the door, it won’t be because of Netanayahu’s policies but because of Bibi himself.