DOWNWARD ’DOGS
Why NFL favorites start to percolate in Week 4
THE first three weeks of the 2019 NFL regular season have been a boon for contrarian bettors and underdog backers. Entering Thursday, 48 games had been played and ’dogs had gone 27-20-1 against the spread (57.4 percent). A $100 bettor taking every ’dog would be enjoying a profit of just over $500.
This early season ’dog edge isn’t a fluke. Since 2003, ’dogs have gone 376-318 ATS (54.7 percent) in Weeks 1 through 3 according to Bet Labs Sports. A $100 bettor would be up $4,265 over this time period.
Many new bettors might be thinking, “Wow, I’ll just continue to hammer ’dogs and become a millionaire by the end of the season!”
However, just as in life, all good things must come to an end. Early in the season, ’dogs have a distinct edge because they’re still healthy, motivated and, most importantly, there isn’t much film to break down and go off of. This provides an element of surprise that levels the playing field and benefits the team getting points.
Unfortunately, as the season progresses, the ’dog edge fades. The good teams start to hit their stride and now have a bigger sample size of film to analyze and game-plan against, which disproportionately benefits the “better” team with the superior players and coaching staffs. We see a distinct turning point when ’dogs stop barking and favorites start improving — Week 4.
In Weeks 1 through 3, ’ dogs are 54.7 percent ATS since 2003. But from Week 4 through Week 17, they drop to 49.5 percent ATS. A $100 bettor would be down nearly $9,000 backing every ’dog over this time span.
In turn, favorites go from 45.8 percent ATS (-70.16 units) in Weeks 1 through 3 to 50.5 percent ATS (-25.76 units) in Weeks 4 through 17. Favorites are still a losing bet overall, but the cover rate jumps nearly five percent and you cut your units lost by nearly a twothirds.
The key isn’t to play every single favorite the rest of the way, but instead to isolate specific situations where betting favorites is profitable.
Here are five spots to keep an eye on:
Thursday Night Favorites: One of the best spots to back a favorite is on Thursday Night Football. The short week and one-off scenario provides a massive advantage to the better team. Since 2003, favorites have gone 91-57 ATS (61.5 percent) on TNF from Week 4 on. If they’re also at home, they improve to 62.1 percent ATS.
Favorites with high totals: When betting favorites, you always want to lean on games with high totals. The higher the total, the more expected points scored, the easier it becomes for the favorite to cover the number. Since 2003, favorites are 52.5 percent ATS (+16.92 units) from Week 4 on when the total is 47.5 or higher. They have lost 42.68 units when the total is 47 or less from Week 4 on. This represents a swing of nearly 50 units.
Road favorites: We see a huge distinction between favorites at home versus on the road. Home favorites are grossly overvalued and have gone just 49.2 percent ATS (-65.73 units) since 2003 from Week 4 on. On the flip side, road favorites have covered at a 52.3 percent clip and won +27.04 units from Week 4 on. This means a $100 bettor would be up just over $2,700 betting every road favorite as opposed to losing more than $6,500 betting every home favorite. Talk about a massive difference.
Short to moderate road favorites (-3 to -6) are 54 percent ATS (+29.93 units) from Week 4 on. Road favorites that lost their last game have also been highly profitable, covering at 55 percent (+26.22 units). If the road favorite that lost its last game is facing a team that won its last game, the numbers improve to 58.1 percent ATS (+12.02 units) from Week 4 on. This is your road favorite sweet spot because it allows you to take advantage of public recency bias by buying low on a favorite and selling high on an underdog.
Favorites off a bye: One of the most profitable and most consistent spots to back a favorite is coming off a bye. The extra time to rest, rejuvenate, rehab injuries and game-plan provides a massive advantage for the “better” team. Since 2003, favorites off a bye have gone 59.6 percent ATS winning +39.66 units. The first bye weeks start in Week 4, so from Week 5 on we should have at least one match per week.
Bet favorites early: Timing is everything when it comes to placing your bet. It’s not just about picking the right side, but also getting the right number and beating the closing line. If you’re looking to bet a favorite, it’s better to bet it as soon as the line opens. Why? Because more often than not the public will back the favorite and push the number up . If you’re on a ’dog, it’s best to wait until later because you’ll likely get a better number in the form of an extra half point or two.