HERE YOU GO, BRO!
The five things GM must do to get Mets to playoffs in 2020
Brodie Van Wagenen reached for the brass ring in his first season as the Mets GM and missed badly as his big offseason moves failed miserably. With a year under his belt, Van Wagenen can get the Mets back to the postseason in 2020 by putting most of his effort toward pitching and defense.
BOLDNESS won Brodie Van Wagenen the job of Mets general manager, and lost the season. The Wilpons wanted to hear the word “rebuild” as much as “Madoff,” and Van Wagenen sold ownership that the Mets had a core for contention now and in the future. His vision was that the team could and should go for it aggressively, simultaneously helping ownership shed the reputation it most hates — of being too frugal when it comes to investing in the product. It turns out Van Wagenen was correct: There was the core of a contender. But the best way to augment for today and tomorrow was not to try to win the back pages in November and December or to try to remake the Wilpons’ image in a hail of eye-catching transactions and “team to beat” boasts. What beset Van Wagenen is not unfamiliar. New administrations get their jobs generally because old ones fail. A sense pervades that massive change is needed — and now. Sandy Alderson, for example, believed that Omar Minaya had left the cupboard empty, but when he took over as GM, the Wilpons were enduring the worst of Madoff. So Alderson was forced to pretty much stick with what he had. And in 2015, the Mets went to the World Series mainly behind Minaya’s empty cupboard.
Van Wagenen thought similarly when he replaced Alderson, except he was permitted to spend. The Mets, though, have produced the fifth-most homegrown Wins Above Replacement this season. There was real talent inherited. The right pathway for Van Wagenen would have been to learn the job, the team and the system, and go for it by taking advantage of a free-agent market now that goes deeper and cheaper into the offseason. He could have upgraded the roster without expending prospects or taking on long-term financial risk. If it had worked, he could have been bold in July, and if it had not, he could have sold with an eye on trying again (not rebuilding) in 2020.
Van Wagenen did not give himself a chance to see if Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil could form a $1 million right side of the infield or if Jarred Kelenic could grow from the sixth pick of the 2018 draft into something special. The best transactions of his first offseason were a small trade (J.D. Davis), the least expensive of his four major league freeagent contracts (Justin Wilson) and a minor league deal (Luis Avilan). It is not sexy. It is not what wins the offseason. It is not what gets the Wilpons liberated from their reputation. But it should be educational.
And it had better be. Because the Mets have no plans to step back to try to build something more sustainable. The intention is to win in 2020, but because of what was done for 2019, they will have less prospect capital and less financial wiggle room. So now that they have been officially eliminated from Van Wagenen’s first season, issue one is determining manager Mickey Callaway’s fate. Then, it’s on to what the Mets should do to make 2020 better:
1. Qualify Zack Wheeler
It’s a no-brainer, almost any team would take Wheeler at one year for $18 million (the approximate qualifying number). Nathan Eovaldi got $17 million per season for four years ($68 million total) last offseason and, like Wheeler, is an oft-injured talented righty whose results have not been as consistently good as his stuff. Eovaldi was a year younger than Wheeler, coming off a terrific postseason and — vitally — did not have the qualifying offer attached to him when he re-signed with Boston.
So maybe Wheeler is looking at four years at $60 million or maybe three years at $48 million. The qualifying offer allows the Mets to get him for one year if he takes it (unlikely), keeps open long-term channels and assures a draft pick next June if he signs elsewhere. Retaining him allows the Mets to keep rotation integrity and more easily consider trading Noah Syndergaard.
2. Do not trade Noah Syndergaard or Edwin Diaz
Unless interested teams value that duo near their peak. The Mets should not sell low on players good enough to be a No. 2 starter and high-end closer. A successful organization fixes talented players who have taken a step back — and you can just imagine what, say, the Astros might do with Syndergaard or Diaz if they landed either. This is as vital for the Van Wagenen administration as any glitzy acquisition: the ability to prove they have personnel and systems to evoke the best from talent. Plus, mending a fractured relationship with Syndergaard is imperative.
3. Improve defense up the middle
I am the last to leave Juan Lagares Island, but his offense never came around and his defense ebbed a bit, and the Mets can’t pick up his $9.5 million option.
The Mets should want to do better defensively in center than Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo. The problem is finding outfield at-bats (and enough dollars) for that pair, Yoenis Cespedes, McNeil (though he could end up the primary third baseman), Davis and even Dominic Smith plus a pure center fielder. With that said, San Diego’s Manuel Margot is intriguing. He hits lefties, so he could partner with, say, Nimmo in center, I think there is more upside in his bat and his defense is terrific.
It is behind the plate, though, that the Mets must focus. Last season they appeared on the brink of signing Yasmani Grandal for four years at $60 million-ish and pivoted to spend on Wilson Ramos and Jed Lowrie. Grandal, a switch-hitting, two-way catcher, is going to be free again and this is the one place the Mets should be thinking about long-term dollars.
4. Manage the payroll
If the Mets are going to import someone like Grandal, they are going to have to find a way — at minimum — to creatively shift dollars on the payroll, since it is hard to believe any team will just take on Jeurys Familia (two years at $22 million left), Ramos (one year, $10.75 million) or Lowrie (one year, $9 millon). For example, could the Mets open the catching spot by trading Ramos to the Rockies for Jake McGee (one year, $11.5 million) or Lowrie to the White Sox for Kelvin Herrera ($9.5 million), since they need relief depth way more for those dollars?
Even with that, it is hard to see Grandal as possible unless the Wilpons approve another payroll hike, especially if Wheeler is retained. Because Lagares and Todd Frazier might be coming off the books, but the Mets can expect an arbitration bill of $40 million to $45 million (perhaps more) for Conforto, Diaz, Nimmo, Syndergaard, Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, Steven Matz and Marcus Stroman. Plus, if Cespedes returns, insurance will not be taking care of 75 percent of his $29.5 million pact.
5. Find hidden treasures
Davis and Avilan were starts, but not nearly enough. The best teams (think Dodgers, Yankees, etc.) are not only spending $200 million-plus, but unearthing talent or improving what seemed ordinary. Van Wagenen insisted he was creating insurance policies that the Mets did not have in recent years, but even being deeper did not make them deep. The inability to turn even one interesting arm such as Tyler Bashlor, Chris Flexen or Drew Gagnon into a useful reliever is a failure.
Because they are so bereft of quality arms at the upper levels, in part because Justin Dunn and Anthony Kay were traded, the Mets’ expanded analytics department and scouts must find success with pitching in the Rule 5 draft, six-year minor league free agency and small trades.