SWEEP & WEEP!
Home teams went 11-0 Sunday, including some public-crushers
LAS VEGAS — Over the years, I’ve seen tons of people who go through their NFL pools picking all the home teams, figuring they’re more likely to win.
Well, those players finally had their day, as home teams went 11-0 straight up and against the spread Sunday (not counting the neutralsite game in London). If you include the Cardinals’ spread-covering 28-25 loss to the 49ers on Thursday night, home teams were 12-0 against the spread in Week 9 heading into the Monday night game, in which the Cowboys were a 6¹/2-point road favorite over the Giants. So betting the NFL is easy, right? Wrong! Sportsbooks from Las Vegas to New Jersey had another winning day Sunday, as bettors continually landed on the wrong side of the most-bet games.
It started with the London game, as the Jaguars were bet to a onepoint favorite, but the Texans rolled to a 26-3 victory.
In the 1 p.m. kickoffs, Minnesota closed as a five-point road favorite at Kansas City without Patrick Mahomes, and the whole world jumped on the Vikings. But the Chiefs won 26-23 on Harrison Butker’s 44-yard field goal as time expired to kill a lot of parlays and teasers.
“Just like last week, the Jets not winning (Miami won 26-18 as a 3¹/2-point home ’dog for its f irst victory of the season) was a great start to the day,” said Patrick Eichner, director of communications for PointsBet in New Jersey. “Steelers, Raiders and Broncos victories were good for us as well. On the flip side, bettors liked the Eagles, Seahawks, Bills and Panthers, so tough results from those matchups.”
As Eichner alluded, the books really cleaned up in the games kicking off in the 4 p.m. window. This was led by the Chargers upsetting the Packers — also a popular public team, especially at 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS entering the game — 26-11 as 4¹/2-point underdogs despite not having a real homefield advantage.
“That was the No. 1 game for us, for sure,” John Murray, sportsbook director at the Westgate SuperBook, said Sunday night on VSiN’s “Opening Lines” show. “We also had people jumping on the Packers’ second-half line.”
Murray said Denver’s 24-19 upset of Cleveland as a four-point home underdog also was big. This was because it killed so much parlay and teaser liability that the Patriots-Ravens game on Sunday night wasn’t much of a decision, even though it was one of the biggest-bet games of the season.
The Ravens upset the Patriots 37-20 as three-point home ’dogs to end New England’s hope for an unbeaten season.
“The public took a beating in the three most lopsided games of the day,” said VSiN colleague, Josh Appelbaum. “The Packers, Browns and Patriots were all favorites receiving more than 70 percent of bets, and all three lost straight up and failed to cover, handing contrarian bettors and sportsbooks massive wins.”
I’ve always maintained that the consensus plays from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest are a great barometer for how well bettors do against the books each week, and it echoed what the sportsbooks were saying Sunday night. The top five most-selected teams in the SuperContest went 0-4-1 on Sunday (losses by the Browns, Packers, Patriots and Vikings, with the push on the Buccaneers at +6). The Colts and Jaguars also lost as the Nos. 6 and 7 selections. In addition, the first-year Circa Sports Million Top 5 went 0-5, with the Colts and Jaguars replacing the Patriots and Bucs on its list.