What a real expert says about that jobs data

IF

you go by the Labor Department’s statistics, the job market was very hot in November. Then it became cold in December.

Average the two out and — in true Goldilocks fashion — the economy (like the porridge) may now be just right.

I’ve always told you that the government’s employment stats are flaky. Various adjustments are supposed to take care of things like Christmas hiring and new companies just coming into being.

But they don’t. They only confuse things.

And only after many months or even years of revisions do we learn what the job market was really like. Wall Street may find the monthly numbers convenient for trading, but you can go crazy trying to determine if Washington is telling us fairy tales with its statistics.

So, for a break from that nonsense, I spoke on Friday with Becky Frank

iewicz, president of North America at ManpowerGroup, the third-largest job staffing company in the world.

The Labor Department had just announced that the nation’s economy added only 145,000 jobs in December. That was well below expectations and well under the 256,000 revised new job total for November.

“I can give you a real-world view from employers and employees,” says Frankiewicz, whose company finds jobs for millions of people each year. “We still have more jobs than people looking for work in our country.”

Even though job growth has been steady over the past year, government numbers say that average incomes for Americans have been growing only moderately. That might change soon, according to Frankiewicz.

“We are seeing the power shift from being more employer-driven to employee-driven,” she says. “Meaning, skilled labor can call the shots.”

So, if she’s right, salaries and benefits should start to rise. People aren’t going to be afraid to change jobs. And more folks are going to want to do what they want to do, not just work for a paycheck.

And the top thing that workers want nowadays, says Frankiewicz, is flexibility. “The fastest-growing nonwage benefit is remote working,” she says. And because of the shortage of workers, Frankiewicz says, companies are starting to give in to workers’ demands.

If the trends that Frankiewicz sees continue, how might they affect the economy as a whole? For one thing, inflation will soon become a lot bigger problem for the Federal Reserve as people who start earning more are often willing to pay higher prices for the things they want.

And there’s also a warning here for the real estate market. If workers really do get their employers to allow them to work remotely — which is a nice way of saying “at home” — companies won’t need to rent as much office space. That’s not good for the real estate market, especially in big cities like New York.

What does this mean for the upcoming presidential election? The Labor Department numbers will rise and fall between now and Election Day. But if the job market is really as strong as Frankiewicz says, then this’ll help President Trump enormously.

Like Becky, voters know in their gut what is going on in the economy. And right now, it’s not a grim fairy tale.

Maybe you can help me with this. The Duke and Duchess of Sussex (known to their friends and the world as Harry and Meghan) decided last week to step back as “senior” members of the British royal family and become financially independent.

Well, good for them! I wish them well.

And if they ever need help with any of the problems that come with the ordinary, run-of-the-mill nonroyal life they seek to lead, they can certainly write to my Dear John column and I will try to help. In fact, I’ll put their problem at the top of my stack.

But that’s not what I really want to talk about.

Does anyone know how I can apply for Harry’s old job? I’ve looked on Indeed.com and the royal family doesn’t seem to have listed that position quite yet. I’d like to get my résumé in before the job is officially posted.

I know, I’m not British. But I’ve been drinking tea my entire life. And I do like a spot of gin now and again — just like Queen Elizabeth is said to fancy.

I’m really good with people. I can talk to stuffy folks about nothing with the best of them. Heck, I’ve been writing about stuffy stuff for over 45 years.

I am good at waving. And while I haven’t cut a ribbon yet, I’m pretty sure I can handle it with some practice.

I also know all the hot social issues of the day and can adjust my current positions to fit whatever it is the royal family wants them to be.

I can even ride a horse. You might, however, have to take out some of those old uniforms Harry wore because I’m a bit un-slender these days. I can work on the weight issue but not the one about age. Yeah, I’m quite a bit older than Harry.

I can’t bring along a “Meghan” for the Duchess job, but give me a budget and I’ll hire someone who is equally good at waving. Most importantly, I don’t mind being financially dependent on the royal family and the British people. In fact, I think I’d enjoy it.

There’s just one thing: I need to know how much Harry’s old position pays. And I hope the royal family will pay for my relocation costs.

I hope the Queen will give me a call so we can discuss this.