Gett' a grip on what stats really mean
Giants’ general manager Dave Gettleman made headlines last week discussing the role of the running game in the NFL.
He said, “People say it’s a passing league, I get that ... [but] the top four passing teams were not in the playoffs, the top four rushing teams were in the playoffs.”
There was immediate outcry in analytics circles about the clear oversimplification.
First, stat handicappers know that offenses with a lead often pad their rushing stats grinding out the clock, while those falling behind have to emphasize the pass to catch up quickly. That can lead to elite teams having more rushing yards per game as a “side effect” of success rather than a cause. (Extreme example: teams taking a knee in victory formation have great win-loss records, but knee-taking isn’t a relevant skill set for building a champion.)
Second, if you use raw yardage to evaluate passing, the leaders could be non-playoff teams that had to throw a lot in desperation. Analysts are more likely to isolate quality by using passer rating, or other “efficiency” stats. It’s true that the top four passing teams by yardage (Tampa Bay, Dallas, Atlanta, and the L.A. Rams) all missed the playoffs. But, the top seven teams in passer rating all qualified (New Orleans, Baltimore, Tennessee, Seattle, Kansas City, Minnesota, San Francisco).
One could easily make the opposite case of Gettleman’s by cherry-picking different categories. Something like “quarterbacks are much more important than running backs … 10 of the top 13 QBs in passer rating made the playoffs, but only four of the top 13 running backs in rushing yardage.”
Bettors must learn how to evaluate key stats in context. There’s always a danger of looking for numbers that confirm your preconceived biases. Don’t be a lawyer looking for evidence to build your case. Do your best to be an unbiased judge or juror and weigh the evidence to draw accurate conclusions.
When handicapping football games, look for offenses that can drive the field while maintaining possession ... then finish those drives with touchdowns rather than field-goal attempts (key stats: yards-per-play, yards-per-drive, giveaways, third-down conversion percentage, red-zone touchdown percentage). Look for defenses that disrupt those efforts (key stats: takeaways, sacks, and “allowed” for categories mentioned above).
When handicapping futures or regular-season win totals, invest in talented, balanced offenses positioned to win consistently for coaches and management that understand the fundamentals of ball movement and protection. Seek out aggressive, deep defenses that shut down opponents while also setting up cheap points for their own offenses. Back the best qualifiers. Fade the worst.
You aren’t the general manager of a franchise (well, maybe a few of you are). You are the manager of your betting portfolio. Money speaks louder than words in our field. Whatever your favorite sports, and whatever your favorite betting propositions, be sure to have an informed opinion so you can bet smart!
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